888
FXUS64 KCRP 232028
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
328 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Quasi-zonal flow aloft with embedded shortwave disturbances will
persist tonight into early tomorrow, followed by the development
of a weak ridge. Southwesterly flow aloft, accompanied by 850mb
temperatures ranging from 20-28 degC, will minimize rain chances
and lead to significant heat impacts tomorrow as some of this warm
air mixes down to the surface. With moderate to strong
southeasterly surface flow over the Gulf and weak mixing expected,
moisture content will remain high. Because of this, NBM dew point
temperature guidance has been increased by a few degrees,
resulting in higher expected minimum and maximum heat indices.

Due to the lack of overnight recovery, with minimum heat indices
remaining in the 80s to low 90s for most of tonight, we have
extended the current Heat Advisory through 10AM tomorrow. Recent
health research indicates that more heat-related emergencies occur
during the overnight hours of prolonged heat events when the body
cannot sufficiently recover from daytime heat. Given that we are
forecasting overnight minimum heat index values ranging from the
80s to low 90s along the coast and anticipating even hotter
conditions tomorrow, we wanted to highlight the increased risk of
heat illness overnight, despite not meeting the official heat
index criteria for Heat Advisories.

Tomorrow, high temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s
along the coast to the upper 90s and into the 100s west of HWY-77.
With dewpoint temperatures forecasted between 75-80 degF, heat
indices will easily meet Excessive Heat Warning criteria (115 degF
or higher). Therefore, an Excessive Heat Warning will replace the
current Heat Advisory beginning at 10AM tomorrow and will remain
in effect until 7AM Saturday.

As we are heading into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, please be
sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks
from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and
lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat
exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it.
Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them
inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally,
check local media and government websites for cooling center
locations and hours.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Upper disturbances are expected to move across nearly all of the
CONUS during the period, yet with the CWA remaining under the
influence of an upper ridge of high pressure. However, disturbances
are expected to force a frontal boundary into TX which may approach
the CWA Monday evening and then stall. The GFS deterministic run
appears more aggressive with the southward movement of the front
than the ECMWF. Concur with the NBM that at least isolated
convection may occur Monday evening/Tuesday afternoon/evening. With
respect to the heat, PWAT values reach 2 inches (99th percentile for
May), and 12z boundary layer mixing ratio values reach 20g/kg
(moisture advecting from the S/SE), over the Coastal Plains/Bend
Saturday, and that condition remains Sunday/Monday, per the
GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs. Expect this increase in moisture to
result in Excessive Heat Warning conditions (Heat Index values 115F
or greater) portions of the Coastal Plains/eastern Brush Country
Saturday through Monday, consistent with NBM output. The P-ETSS
indicate that water levels may approach the threshold for minor
coastal flooding at Aransas Pass during the high tide cycles
Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Predominately VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon
at area TAF sites with SCT cumulus ranging from 2500-4000 feet.
Winds will be out of the SSE/SE at 15-20 knots with a medium
chance for gusts over 30 knots at the coastal TAF sites through
this afternoon. Wind speeds will drop to 10-15 knots after sunset
and MVFR ceilings are expected to build back in at the coastal TAF
sites from 3-6Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024
A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for all waters,
including the bays, until 11 PM this evening. Moderate to strong
onshore flow is expected through Friday night with southeast winds
20 to 25 knots with a low to medium chance for gusts up to 30
knots. Seas are expected to remain around 6-7 feet. In response
to the persistent progressive pattern over much of the CONUS
during the Saturday through Thursday, predominately moderate
onshore flow will persist during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  96  80  95 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          79  95  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            81 109  80 109 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             79 103  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          81  91  81  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80 108  79 108 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        80 100  81  98 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  91  82  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ229-230-239>243.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday
     for TXZ229>231-239>243.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....WC/87
AVIATION...TWH/91