Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 260438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1038 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Mid to upper level ridge will remain in control over the region
through the period, with a northwesterly to westerly flow aloft.
At the surface, the high has continued on an eastward progression
across the Gulf resulting in a more southerly wind direction and a
slight moisture increase across the area. Breezy conditions this
afternoon are in response to a tighter pressure gradient from a
developing surface low over the Southern Plains and the high over
the eastern Gulf. Clouds will begin to filter in aloft tonight
through Monday night, however, rain-free conditions and very warm
temperatures remain in the forecast. There is a 50-60% chance of
of fog development over portions of the Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads late tonight into early Monday morning, with
lower probabilities out west. Confidence though remains on the
medium realm as although low-level moisture and dry mid-levels are
present, winds may be a tad too strong overnight for optimal
radiational fog to form. Nevertheless, went ahead and introduced
patchy to area of fog in the forecast.

Monday will be very warm and well above the normal for this time
of year, with highs rising into the mid 90s for portions of the
Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Across the east, highs may
warm into the mid 80s, with mid 70s along the immediate coast.
Overnight lows will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight, and
in the low to mid 60s Monday night.


(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Cold front on Wednesday will bring cooler temperatures

Morning fog will be possible once again Tuesday morning over a few
locations, but will expect fog will lift quickly after sunrise. High
temperatures for Tuesday will remain above normal, with highs in the
80s to mid 90s across South Texas. Most of the model guidance has
continued to trend towards an earlier frontal passage than the NBM
so, in collaboration with our neighboring offices, we adjusted
Wednesday`s high temperatures to be cooler than the previously
forecast. By using a 1:1 blend of the NBM25:CONSMOS, high
temperatures are now expected to be from the mid-70s to mid-80s.
Confidence is increasing for at least occasional wind gusts reaching
Wind Advisory criteria Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain
in the 60s and 70s through Friday before onshore flow returns,
increasing moisture and temperatures.

Isolated to scattered (20-40%)showers will increase over the coast
and coastal waters on Thursday night through Saturday as the
increasing moisture combines with a trough. Confidence is, at best,
moderate for showers and is very low for any chances of
thunderstorms, so have maintained a mention of showers but have
excluded any thunderstorm mentions in the forecast.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

VFR conditions currently prevail across South Texas with lower
MVFR ceilings focused northeast of VCT towards Houston. MVFR/IFR
ceilings may continue to spread across the Coastal Plains tonight
and impact VCT/ALI/CRP with greatest impacts across ALI/VCT. Winds
become lightest over ALI/VCT, allowing for borderline IFR/LIFR fog
concerns. However, latest model guidance has trimmed down this
potential so confidence is low. VFR conditions will prevail across
all sites by 17Z with southeasterly winds increasing through the
afternoon. Near the end of the TAF package, a low-level jet will
strengthen and cause a greater low ceiling event threat rather
than fog over the Coastal Plains Monday night.


Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

A generally moderate onshore flow tonight will become weak to
moderate by Monday morning, before increasing to moderate to
strong levels Monday afternoon into the overnight period. A few
hours of Advisory conditions will be possible offshore Monday
night due to strong winds and increased seas. Moderate to strong
winds will increase through the day Tuesday and Tuesday night to
20 to 25 knots. Winds will decrease Wednesday morning as a cold
front approaches, then crosses the waters. Winds will shift to the
north behind the front and increase back to 20 to 25 knots, with
higher gusts. Winds will diminish to moderate on Thursday night,
then gradually become northeast to east through Friday.


Corpus Christi    63  85  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          61  83  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            63  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             61  89  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          63  77  65  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           61  94  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        62  88  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  78  67  78 /   0   0   0   0




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