434
FXUS64 KCRP 130906
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
406 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Moderate risk of heat related impacts Tuesday, moderate to extreme
  risk of heat related impacts Wednesday.

- Heat Advisory in effect for today and tomorrow afternoons

The mid to upper level ridge will continue moving eastward today
with the ridge axis expected to be over South Texas Wednesday. As
the ridge continues to move into the region, moisture will also
continue to increase due to the return of onshore flow as PWAT
values increase to 1.2-1.3" this afternoon. The combination of
increased subsidence and warmer temperatures coupled with the
increase in moisture will lead to dangerous heat index values. With
air temperatures expected to be highest tomorrow, the most
significant heat index values and impacts can be expected Wednesday,
however, don`t discount Tuesday as this early season heat can take a
toll on the body. A moderate risk of heat related impacts are
expected today areawide with the risk increasing to major to extreme
tomorrow from Jim Wells and Live Oak counties and areas west of
there. Please use caution if outdoors and remember to remain
hydrated and take frequent breaks. More heat safety information can
be found at weather.gov/heat

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Major to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts Daily

- Heat Advisory in Effect through Wednesday | Extension Likely

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions over the Brush Country Daily

A potent mid-level ridge centered over Mexico on Wednesday will
extend over South Texas persistently into early next week as it
shifts very slowly eastward into the Gulf. This will set the stage
for a confident extreme heat event through Saturday, as indicated by
the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) index of 0.8-1.00, shift-of-
tails of 1-2 (more extreme temperatures guidance), and the North
American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) showing max 850mb
temperatures. Additionally, heat index values will likely range from
100-115 (east to west) each afternoon, with a Wet Bulb Globe
Temperature (WBGT) of 85-90 degrees representing a high threat. The
combination of all the factors above, including the abnormally early
onset of this type of heat and minimal recovery at night (mid-70s),
leads to a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts daily
across South Texas. Areas including and west of US-77/I-37 have the
greatest threat with max ambient air temperatures of 100-112.

Please take heat safety precautions: drink plenty of water, reduce
outdoor exposure, take frequent breaks, and always look before you
lock. Visit weather.gov/heat for more safety material for yourself,
your family, and work.

Meanwhile, a surface low developing over the Central Plains will
increase winds out of the south to southeast Wednesday at around 15
mph with gusts over 20 mph. Stronger winds in combination of
increasing Energy Release Component (ERC) percentiles in the 70-95th
range and minimum relative humidity 15-30%, will lead to at least
elevated fire weather conditions through Saturday over the Brush
Country. No precipitation is expected into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the cycle at area terminals.
There is a low chance for a brief period of patchy fog to develop
at the VCT site early Tuesday morning, but confidence in occurrence
is still not high enough to be included in the TAFs at this time.
Otherwise, expect light and variable winds overnight, increasing
to around 12-15 knots mid Tuesday morning with gusts to 20-25
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

A fresh southerly breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue today
increasing to strong (BF 6) tonight and tomorrow morning before
decreasing back to fresh tomorrow afternoon. This increase in winds
tonight and tomorrow morning has led to the issuance of a Small
Craft Advisory. A fresh to strong onshore breeze will keep Small
Craft Advisory conditions intact through Thursday afternoon with
seas 5 to 7 feet. A moderate onshore breeze with seas 4 to 5 feet
will then persist Thursday night through this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Low minimum relative humidity values and moderate to high Energy
Release Component values this afternoon will result in a low chance
for elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country A
surface low developing over the Central Plains will increase winds
out of the south to southeast Wednesday at around 15 mph with
gusts over 20 mph. Stronger winds in combination of increasing
Energy Release Component (ERC) percentiles in the 70-95th range
and minimum relative humidity 15-30%, will lead to at least
elevated fire weather conditions each afternoon through Saturday
over the Brush Country. No precipitation is expected into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          96  71  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           107  75 111  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            103  71 105  75 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          88  76  88  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          108  74 112  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville       101  72 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       87  77  87  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ229>231-239>241.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ229>231-
     239>244.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
     Wednesday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...ANM/88