Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 242358 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
658 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will continue to subside over the next couple of hours at
ALI/CRP/VCT but may remain a bit elevated at LRD through the
evening. Low clouds may also build in across the region and
generally have MVFR ceilings late tonight into Monday morning.
Chances for rain will increase on Monday, first along the coast
then spreading towards the VCT taf site. Have accounted for shower
and storm potential with VCSH/VCTS remarks for now. Confidence is
not high enough to mention at LRD at this time. South to southeast
winds will be common again on Monday, with gusts between 20 and 25
knots.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...

GOES Precipitable Water Imager as well as water vapor imagery
indicate an area of higher moisture over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico, where a mid/upper level inverted trough is gradually
traversing northwestward towards South Texas and northeast
Mexico. Precipitable water values of 2.1 to 2.3 inches,
with moisture convergence near the coast, will allow for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop late tonight
over the waters. Anticipate convection to spread further westward
throughout the day tomorrow as this system aloft moves westward.
There is not much of a surface reflection during the day as this
upper disturbance passes rather swiftly to the west, and this is
not anticipated to be a prolonged event. However, some of these
storms may be able to produce a quick heavy downpour. Low-lying
areas that are already saturated from the previous week`s
rainfall may see a bit of a rise in ponding water. By tomorrow
night the trough will be more to the west of the region. An
isolated shower or storm may linger across the area, but
anticipate a general decrease in convection overnight.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Expect the influence of the inverted upper trough to diminish by
Tuesday evening (GFS ensemble mean) and will forecast a gradual
dissipation in precipitation Tuesday from east to west.
Deterministic runs predict the upper ridge axis to persist and
remain oriented approximately E-W across the SRN CONUS Wednesday/
Thursday (with a progressive pattern over the NRN 2/3 of the CONUS),
while the GFS deterministic predict PWAT values near/slightly below
normal. Nevertheless, will forecast isolated (nocturnal MSA and
mainly diurnal CWA) convection for Wednesday/Thursday, somewhat
consistent with the SuperBlend. Friday-Sunday, the ECMWF/GFS predict
a transition to a meridional pattern over the CONUS yet with the
CWA/MSA still under the influence of an upper ridge. These
deterministic runs also depict slightly greater subsidence (per 700-
300mb Q-vector output) over the CWA/MSA. Will not introduce
convection during this period. Expect maximum Heat Index values 105-
109F during the period. WaveWatch predicted sea states suggest no
worse than a moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  89  78  90  77  /  30  40  20  10  10
Victoria          78  90  77  92  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
Laredo            78  97  78  97  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
Alice             77  92  77  93  75  /  20  40  20  20  10
Rockport          81  89  80  87  80  /  30  40  20  10  10
Cotulla           77  96  77  98  75  /  10  20  20  20  10
Kingsville        78  92  78  93  77  /  30  40  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       80  89  80  87  80  /  40  40  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.