Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 180538
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1238 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ VFR through the period with high clouds streaming
around 10K ft. General N-NE 10-15 KT winds through much of the day
SUN, weakening a bit SUN evening. Winds toward COT-LRD may take on
a more E-ly flow late in the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

The CWA will remain near the RRQ of an upper jet streak. PWAT
values are expected to decrease from west to east over the CWA
tonight, yet remain near normal offshore. Will maintain a slight
chance for showers over the ERN CWA 00-06z Sunday, then restrict
activity to the Waters overnight. Cool tonight/Sunday night with
lows in the 50s, and highs in the upper 60s/near 70 Sunday
(consistent with NBM/SREF mean values). An upper level
disturbance over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners region will
move SWD to the SWRN CONUS during the period. Isentropic lift
ahead of this system may contribute to isolated showers/patchy
light rain over the SERN CWA Sunday night. Allowed the CFW to
expire.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Quasi-zonal flow is the predominant synoptic feature for much of the
Southern U.S. next week with a few mid-level lows and a cold front
or two sprinkled in. Temperatures are still on track to be cooler
than normal until Friday. Expecting highs to start out in the Low
70s Monday and gradually warming to around the low 90s by weekend.
Sky cover will mostly clear out as dry air infiltrates behind the
first front and return of moisture Thursday/Friday will bring back
mostly cloudy conditions.

Isolated shower may be possible on Monday for the coastal region but
mainly offshore as isentropic lifting could provide some lift. This
will be weak and there`s still discrepancy between models with the
GFS being the wetter solution. Dry conditions take hold for the
majority of the week and is expected to keep showers at bay as the
aforementioned cold-front moves through the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. After this front moves offshore, moisture returns to the
area thanks to a moderate to strong onshore flow. This will allow
PWAT`s to increase above normal with the GFS suggesting up to around
2.00" by Friday which would exceed 99th percentile for this time of
year. However impressive, keeping in mind the wide spread between
guidance during the latter part of the period, have kept with the
NBM, which may be too dry if the other models start to come inline.
Never the less, mid-level moisture will improve enough to erode the
cap, allowing for Convection back into the forecast Friday and
Friday night.

Finally, will keep a mention of Coastal flooding due to persistent
northeasterly flow despite guidance not picking up on this yet.

MARINE...

Synoptic scale lift associated with an upper jet streak, and PWAT
values near normal, will maintain isolated showers/patchy
light rain over the coastal waters tonight/Sunday. The
combination of greater MSLP to the NW and a surface low over the
SWRN Gulf of Mexico, will maintain strong N/NE flow over the
Waters tonight/early Sunday. Will maintain the Small Craft
Advisory for the coastal waters tonight/Sunday morning. Isolated
showers will be possible Monday before giving way to drier
conditions. Weak to moderate east to northeast winds will continue
through mid week before increasing to moderate levels. Moderate
to strong southeast flow is expected to return Wednesday night and
could possibly increase to near strong levels by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  71  58  81  55  /  20  10  10  10   0
Victoria          51  71  54  81  49  /  10  10  10  10   0
Laredo            55  73  57  87  57  /  10  10  10   0   0
Alice             52  73  54  85  53  /  10  10  10  10   0
Rockport          57  73  61  80  56  /  10  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           53  75  54  88  53  /  10  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        53  72  56  83  54  /  20  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       60  71  63  76  59  /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT this
     afternoon For the following zones: Aransas Islands...
     Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION


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