Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 211152
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
652 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAF cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR stratus will mix out from the eastern terminals in the next
few hours, with VFR conditions thereafter. A dryline will be
moving through western terminals in the next few hours, turning
winds to northwest through the day. Dryline will retreat after
sunset, returning western terminals to southeast surface winds.
MVFR cigs to redevelop late tonight at eastern terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 526 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Quick update to adjust marine hazards. No changes to land hazards
or forecasts.

MARINE...

Have opted to extend SCA timing further out today and tonight
based on surface and marine observations and model trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Primary focus again this morning is on strong winds as pressure
gradient between low pressure over the Central High Plains and
high pressure over the southeast CONUS, enhanced by a nocturnal
low level jet, continues to produce significant winds. Winds will
gradually decrease during the day as the gradient relaxes and the
LLJ repositions, but breezy, gusty winds will continue across much
of South Texas through the day. There remains a slight chance of a
thunderstorm in and near the Victoria Crossroads ahead of a
dryline. Current indications are that the dryline will get
somewhere between SH16 and US281 this afternoon. Locations west of
the dryline will see high temperatures near 100 degrees, but with
much less humidity as dry west Texas air pushes into those areas.

Marine flow will push back across the western brush country
tonight, bringing dewpoints back up and keeping lows from falling
too far overnight. Warm and humid weather will continue on
Wednesday, with a slight uptick in the winds again as high
pressure noses in from the east and increases the pressure
gradient in our area.

Minor coastal flooding remains an issue, and a coastal flood
advisory for inundation around high tide remains in effect through
Wednesday morning. Water is likely to reach the dunes at some
locations around high tide, with the potential to flood beach
access roads.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday Night)...

Not many changes this cycle through the long term period. Globals
still indicate that south Texas will be between a very robust high
pressure across the southeast US and a fairly amplified H5 trough
across the desert southwest. This pattern (southwesterly flow aloft)
is usually quite active, however, much of the upper level
lift/individual impulses will reside well north of south Texas.

At the surface, southeasterly flow/southerly flow will continue.
Pressure gradient between the high pressure east and low/leeside
troughing west will continue to supply the area with breezy
conditions. The constant southeast flow will continue to allow water
to pile-up along area beaches of the TX Coastal Bend through the
upcoming weekend. Minor coastal flooding during high tide cycles
will likely persist. Gradually, pressure gradient will begin to
subside later this week and into the upcoming holiday weekend. This
will help winds relax only slightly.

Guidance is still persistent on very weak QPF signals here or there.
Handled most of this with silent 10s as aloft will be very dry and
anything that does develop will be mostly confined to the richer
boundary layer. The highest chances (albeit low) of measurable rain
will likely remain up in the Victoria Crossroads area.

Through the long term period it appears temperatures will remain
around or a few degree above seasonable averages. With the continued
onshore flow, low level moisture will be relatively high keeping
heat index values elevated as well. In fact, the Rio Grande Plain
may hit heat index values between 100 and 105 to start the long term
period before leveling back of into the upper 90s to lower 100s as
somewhat drier air mixes down during the warmest part of the day by
the end of the week.

MARINE...

Marine observations continue to show gusts to gale force over the
open waters, and the gale warning will continue until 7 am, when
it will be replaced by a small craft advisory as winds very slowly
subside. Seas will remain high, and advisory conditions may remain
due to the seas offshore even after winds have subsided below
advisory criteria. Adverse marine conditions are expected through
the weekend and into early next week. Strong southeasterly/southerly
flow is expected to continue through the upcoming weekend as a
strong high pressure system sets up across the southeast US.
Pressure gradient does somewhat relax (instead of SCA likely
cautionary wording for winds), however, southeasterly swells will
continue to remain elevated due to the fetch across the Bay of
Campeche to the coastal bend region. This will likely keep SCA
conditions despite the slightly low winds. Winds will begin to
increase once again toward the end of the period as surface
cyclogenesis begins to develop east of the Mexican Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  77  89  79  89  /  10   0  10   0  20
Victoria          89  75  89  77  88  /  20  10  10  10  20
Laredo           103  76 100  80  99  /   0   0  10   0  10
Alice             96  76  94  78  93  /  10   0   0   0  20
Rockport          86  79  84  79  85  /  10  10  10   0  20
Cotulla           96  72  98  76  97  /  10   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        95  77  92  78  91  /  10   0   0   0  20
Navy Corpus       86  79  86  79  85  /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...
     Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION


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