Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 081211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
611 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Concur with deterministic output which predicts the upper high
pressure system to remain quasi-stationary and centered over the
Gulf of Mexico, while an upper disturbance approaches the Plains
today, then lifts to the Great Lakes region Friday, while another
system approaches the southwestern CONUS. The proximity of the
upper high pressure system suggests that this above normal
temperature pattern will persist. Near to slight above normal
PWAT values predicted during the period. Persistent isentropic
lift predicted during the period, yet signficantly lower
condensation pressure deficits are expected Friday. Concur with
the NBM which outputs 20-30 percent PoPs tonight/Friday near the
coast/offshore. Will forecast isolated/scattered showers over the
Coastal Bend for Friday. Expect the rip current risk to remain
low. Do not expect coastal flooding.


(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Long Term Key Message:

- Patchy to areas of fog are likely Friday night, which can drop
  visibilities to a mile or less from time to time

- Hazardous marine conditions are likely during the Monday through
  Wednesday timeframe of next week

Not to sound like a broken record, but not much has changed in the
extended forecast with this forecast package. The mid to upper level
high pressure in the Gulf is expected to erode from the northwest
this weekend as a cold front stalls across North Texas. Models
continue to agree with a frontal passage early to mid-week next week
despite continuing to disagree with the timing. The most significant
change with this package would be the flip flop of the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic model runs. Unlike last night, the ECMWF is now
showing a Tuesday evening frontal passage with the GFS showing the
front clearing the area Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, continued to
lean on the NBM and show a Tuesday night frontal passage. With PWATs
increasing to around 1.5" this weekend, isolated to scattered
showers will be possible Saturday and Sunday from the Coastal Plains
to the Coastal Bend and northward into the Victoria Crossroads. Rain
chances will return once again Tuesday ahead of and along the cold
front. With a warm and moist southerly flow continuing into the
weekend, patchy to areas of fog will be possible Friday night across
the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads and the bays
and nearshore waters. Above average high temperatures are expected
to continue through Tuesday before cooling down into the 60s mid to
late week next week in the wake of the front. Overnight lows will
also remain warmer than normal through Tuesday night before dropping
into the 40s and 50s late next week.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

A mixture of MVFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions early this morning
will transition to predominate MVFR ceilings by mid morning, then
VFR by afternoon. Light wind early Friday morning increasing to
moderate this afternoon. A transition to MVFR/IFR conditions and
light wind expected after 05z Friday. Patchy light rain/isolated
showers may occur near the coast, including CRP, 10-12z Friday.


Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Expect weak to moderate onshore flow to continue today through
Friday, per the synoptic pattern. Isentropic lift/low condensation
pressure deficits suggestive of at least patchy light
rain/isolated showers tonight and Friday. Continue to expect
patchy fog during the late night through mid morning hours through
Friday. Moderate southerly winds around 15 knots are expected
Friday night through Saturday evening, with winds relaxing to
under 10 knots from Saturday night to Sunday evening. Stronger
winds will return Sunday night with winds increasing to moderate
to strong levels Monday through Wednesday, which will most likely
result in Small Craft Advisory conditions. A cold front is
expected to sweep across the local waters early next week, which
will shift the winds to the north Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday, then again Tuesday through Wednesday
afternoon. Patchy to areas of fog will also be possible Friday
night across the bays and nearshore waters which can reduce
visibilities to a mile or less from time to time.


Corpus Christi    81  68  80  67 /  10  10  20  10
Victoria          82  67  80  66 /  10  10  20  10
Laredo            81  66  80  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             84  66  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
Rockport          77  65  76  66 /  10  10  20  10
Cotulla           84  67  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        82  66  81  66 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       76  69  75  68 /  10  10  20  10




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