Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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557 FXUS64 KCRP 121108 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 508 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 With multiple locations reporting patchy fog, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory over most of South Texas. Expect conditions will improve by 9 AM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 221 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 The dominating ridge will begin to move to the east today and quasi-zonal flow will develop. A cold front will push across Texas Tuesday night through Wednesday, with light winds shifting to the north Wednesday ahead of the arrival of dry air on Wednesday night. Dry air aloft will remain in place, leaving us with no chance of rain. Low level moisture will stay in place, resulting in patchy to areas of fog this morning. Fog will lift by mid morning. We can expect much the same for Wednesday morning, though the wind direction shift could keep fog development a bit more limited. Minor coastal flooding will continue through this afternoon across the Bays as water levels still remain elevated. With subsiding swell periods and heights and light winds, the coastal flooding threat seems to have subsided over the Gulf facing beaches. These conditions would normally lead to a low risk of rip currents, but with water continuing to drain from the Bays, a moderate rip current risk will continue through Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 221 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Key Messages: - Coastal Flooding makes a return at the end of the week. - Lows Thursday night/Friday morning in the 50s over most of South Texas. Sfc high follows the weakening cold front into Texas, and first begins to push somewhat cooler air through the forecast area. By Thursday morning, the high has turned the winds from the north to the northeast, and the sfc ridge axis moves eastward into the ArkLaTex by the afternoon. The high will spread the dry air out, and the northeast wind will push the dry air into the South Texas and Deep South Texas, pushing the remaining moisture along the Rio Grande Valley. With light winds and clear skies over South Texas, and cooler, drier air over the region, low temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s, with some areas in the Victoria Crossroads getting into the mid to upper 40s. That northeast wind will help drive the water up on the beach of the middle Texas coast Thursday into the weekend as the P-ETTS model shows over 2 feet MSL for water levels at Aransas Pass, which usually signals minor coastal flooding with inundation around 1 ft (water to the dunes). Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks pretty similar to what has been happening the last week, with 500 mb ridging over the region into Tuesday. The sfc ridge will position itself over the Upper Gulf Coastal States, pushing the SE flow into the middle Texas Coast. Temperatures will range from the mid 80s to around 90 through Monday and low temperatures will be in the 60s and lower 70s. Tuesday, another front looks to push southeast out of the Panhandle, and may bring some cooler temperatures again. However, Tuesday forecast has a wrinkle in it. NHC has a system forming in the western Caribbean within the next 7 days. Some of the models bring it into the central or eastern Gulf by Tuesday, which could slow the 500 mb trough up, as well as the cold front that would try to get into South Texas. The system, at this point, would is unlikely to get into the western Gulf or Texas as the same features that dissipated Rafael in the central Gulf are still over South Texas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Once again, we are seeing patchy to areas of fog across large portions of South Texas. Expect MVFR to periods of LIFR conditions over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Conditions will improve around 15Z. VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the day today before patchy to areas of fog redevelop, leading to MVFR to LIFR conditions once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Weak easterly flow will turn northeast and north today and tonight. There is a medium chance for some early morning fog over the Bays and Intracoastal Waters late tonight into the early morning hours. The northeast flow increases to moderate to strong at times Wednesday night and Thursday, resulting in brief Small Craft Advisory conditions. Weak onshore flow returns this weekend, and looks to increase to moderate to strong south to southeast flow for the beginning of the week. No rain is expected Wednesday night into Friday. Gulf moisture will be on the increase over the weekend, so that the rain chances are low (15-20%). Sunday night into Monday chances increase to 25-35%, as a cold front tries to move into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 64 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 86 57 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 89 66 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 88 61 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 83 67 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 88 64 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 86 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 72 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM....JSL AVIATION...LS/77