Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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557
FXUS64 KCRP 121108
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
508 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

With multiple locations reporting patchy fog, have issued a Dense
Fog Advisory over most of South Texas. Expect conditions will
improve by 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

The dominating ridge will begin to move to the east today and
quasi-zonal flow will develop. A cold front will push across Texas
Tuesday night through Wednesday, with light winds shifting to the
north Wednesday ahead of the arrival of dry air on Wednesday
night. Dry air aloft will remain in place, leaving us with no
chance of rain. Low level moisture will stay in place, resulting
in patchy to areas of fog this morning. Fog will lift by mid
morning. We can expect much the same for Wednesday morning, though
the wind direction shift could keep fog development a bit more
limited.

Minor coastal flooding will continue through this afternoon across
the Bays as water levels still remain elevated. With subsiding
swell periods and heights and light winds, the coastal flooding
threat seems to have subsided over the Gulf facing beaches. These
conditions would normally lead to a low risk of rip currents, but
with water continuing to drain from the Bays, a moderate rip
current risk will continue through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Coastal Flooding makes a return at the end of the week.

- Lows Thursday night/Friday morning in the 50s over most of South
Texas.

Sfc high follows the weakening cold front into Texas, and first
begins to push somewhat cooler air through the forecast area. By
Thursday morning, the high has turned the winds from the north to
the northeast, and the sfc ridge axis moves eastward into the
ArkLaTex by the afternoon. The high will spread the dry air out, and
the northeast wind will push the dry air into the South Texas and
Deep South Texas, pushing the remaining moisture along the Rio
Grande Valley. With light winds and clear skies over South Texas,
and cooler, drier air over the region, low temperatures are expected
to fall into the 50s, with some areas in the Victoria Crossroads
getting into the mid to upper 40s.

That northeast wind will help drive the water up on the beach of the
middle Texas coast Thursday into the weekend as the P-ETTS model
shows over 2 feet MSL for water levels at Aransas Pass, which
usually signals minor coastal flooding with inundation around 1 ft
(water to the dunes).

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks pretty similar to what has
been happening the last week, with 500 mb ridging over the region
into Tuesday. The sfc ridge will position itself over the Upper Gulf
Coastal States, pushing the SE flow into the middle Texas Coast.
Temperatures will range from the mid 80s to around 90 through Monday
and low temperatures will be in the 60s and lower 70s. Tuesday,
another front looks to push southeast out of the Panhandle, and may
bring some cooler temperatures again. However, Tuesday forecast has
a wrinkle in it. NHC has a system forming in the western Caribbean
within the next 7 days. Some of the models bring it into the central
or eastern Gulf by Tuesday, which could slow the 500 mb trough up,
as well as the cold front that would try to get into South Texas.
The system, at this point, would is unlikely to get into the western
Gulf or Texas as the same features that dissipated Rafael in the
central Gulf are still over South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Once again, we are seeing patchy to areas of fog across large
portions of South Texas. Expect MVFR to periods of LIFR conditions
over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Conditions will
improve around 15Z. VFR conditions with light winds are expected
through the day today before patchy to areas of fog redevelop,
leading to MVFR to LIFR conditions once again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Weak easterly flow will turn northeast and north today and
tonight. There is a medium chance for some early morning fog over
the Bays and Intracoastal Waters late tonight into the early
morning hours. The northeast flow increases to moderate to strong
at times Wednesday night and Thursday, resulting in brief Small
Craft Advisory conditions. Weak onshore flow returns this weekend,
and looks to increase to moderate to strong south to southeast
flow for the beginning of the week. No rain is expected Wednesday
night into Friday. Gulf moisture will be on the increase over the
weekend, so that the rain chances are low (15-20%). Sunday night
into Monday chances increase to 25-35%, as a cold front tries to
move into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  64  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          86  57  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            89  66  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             88  61  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          83  67  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           88  64  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        86  62  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  72  83  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...LS/77