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000
FXUS64 KCRP 271017
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
417 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Isentropic ascent at the 295K level (30+ kts) will continue to draw
clouds into south Texas as onshore flow pulls in moisture from the
Gulf through the short-term period. PWAT values will increase to
around 1.10" in response to the influx of moisture. Expect cloud
cover to thicken today due to the strengthening isentropic ascent,
leaving highs on the cooler side once again. Temperatures will reach
into the upper 50s to around 60.

The aforementioned isentropic ascent and PWAT values will support
the development of showers across the Coastal Bend tonight. Hi-Res
models show showers increasing in coverage overnight into early
Saturday. Highest PoPs (30-40%) will be across the coastal counties
and Victoria Crossroads, with 20% PoPs further inland. PoPs will
decrease through the afternoon as the areas of more favorable
isentropic ascent move north. Highs on Saturday will be a bit
warmer, with temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Key Messages

- Unsettled Weather through early next week

Mid-level zonal flow becomes more progressive as we head into the
long term period with troughing developing west of the area. This
will swing a short wave through the area Saturday night into Sunday.
Increasing instability Saturday night will allow for the potential
for thunderstorms along with showers that are expected to develop.
CAPE values increase to near 1k j/kg mainly for the eastern half of
the area and marine zones. A frontal boundary will also be moving
into the area Sunday. Models still are not in agreement on the
strength of the front, and feel it likely stalls in or just south of
the area. Upper level jet dynamics remain mainly north of the area,
but do have some reasonable bulk shear values, and can`t rule out a
stronger storm, mainly for the Victoria Crossroads. High
temperatures Sunday likely in the 70s and some lower 80s before the
boundary moves in.

Early next week, this boundary will continue to be in the area which
will keep the potential for isolated showers at times. Mid level
energy continuing to stream over the area will also keep us in
mostly cloudy skies for the early part of the week.  Temperatures
should be a bit cooler in the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday, then
even cooler Wednesday into Thursday as rain chances increase. The
mid-upper level trough should swing through on Thursday pushing out
the stalled front and bringing quieter weather...and the return of
the sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

VFR conditions continue through mid day Friday before the
gradual increase in moisture leads to lowering ceilings. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop between 20-23Z at
ALI/CRP/COT/LRD. VCT looks to fall to MVFR just beyond this TAF
cycle. Can`t rule out potential IFR at LRD late Friday night.
North-northeasterly winds tonight will gradually shift around to
the east through the day Friday while remaining around 10 knots or
less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Weak northeast winds tonight will gradually become weak to moderate
out of the east this morning. The flow will become moderate out of
the southeast this evening and increase to moderate to strong
overnight tonight through Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are likely. Scattered light rain showers are possible late Friday
night. Moderate to strong south-southeasterly flow will relax to
more moderate levels Sunday morning and veer to the south. A weak
frontal boundary may move into the area early next week to shift
winds more easterly or northeasterly. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday through Sunday
night, then again Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  57  72  66 /  10  30  10  20
Victoria          59  53  71  64 /  10  30  30  40
Laredo            59  53  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             62  55  75  64 /  10  20  10  10
Rockport          61  57  71  64 /  10  40  30  40
Cotulla           60  51  73  61 /  10  20  10  10
Kingsville        62  56  74  65 /  10  30  10  10
Navy Corpus       62  59  70  67 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HA/72
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...TC