Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 211741
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 18Z Aviation

&&

.AVIATION...

The cold front is currently south of the region with VFR
conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period. North
winds will persist through early Tuesday morning before they take
on a more easterly component. Winds will be gusty at times through
the early afternoon hours today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1047 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

This morning`s cold front is currently pushing offshore with
scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. The
drier air is trailing behind the boundary a bit with PWATs near
0.5" across the Hill Country. Went ahead and reduced POPs across
much of the region for the rest of the day. Kept the high POPs in
over the waters as showers and storms will linger around for a bit
longer. Only other change made was to adjust temps to account for
the current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 606 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...

Cold front is approaching COT and VCT as of 12Z with MVFR ceilings
possible at all terminals. A line of showers and thunderstorms
extends along the front and the best rain chances will be at ALI
and CRP. Expect all sites to improve to VFR by 18Z with northerly
winds behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Am impulse moving across South Texas has led to scattered showers
and thunderstorms this morning, mainly over the coastal waters. A
cold front extending from a stacked low over northern plains is
currently stretched across Central Texas. Timing is still on track
for the front the enter the CWA around 12Z and reach the coast by
18Z. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front, and
hi-res models show the best chances for the Victoria Crossroads
and Coastal Waters. Temperatures will continue to warm behind the
front, with highs in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Much
drier air will move in this afternoon behind the front with
dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s by this evening. Isolated
showers are possible tonight for the offshore coastal waters,
otherwise dry weather is expected through Tuesday with PWATs less
than half an inch. Highs will be seasonal on Tuesday in the low
80s.

Coastal flooding is expected to continue through Tuesday with
PETSS output showing tide levels exceeding 2 ft MSL.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Tuesday night looks cool once again with light winds across the area
as high pressure shifts eastward. Winds across the Gulf waters will
shift more easterly through the night and will keep near coast
temperatures a bit warmer. Full onshore flow returns by Wednesday
with gradually increasing low level moisture. Deeper moisture pushes
toward the area Thursday. GFS doesn`t push the moisture as far inland
as ECMWF would suggest. Will keep highest rain chances east for the
daytime Thursday. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be
generally in the mid 80s.

Timing on the next cold front is still very unclear. GFS model
continues to be much faster with frontal passage as early as
midnight Thursday night. ECMWF has a cutoff upper level low over
the southwestern states which slows the progression of the front
pushing it off the coast by about mid-day Friday.  Will side more
with the faster GFS solution considering the strength of the front.
Expect the front to be through the area by day-break Friday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances increase along the front as well. Assuming
GFS verifies, would expect a mainly dry day Friday as this front
appears quite deep. Have left just a slight chance PoP in for Friday
in the event that the front pushes through more slowly.

Much cooler conditions are expected behind this front. Daytime highs
will likely be in the 60s for most of the area with lows Friday
night dropping into the 40s and 50s. The weekend looks quite
pleasant with highs in the 70s Saturday and warming to around 80
Sunday with mainly sunny skies.

Coastal flooding is expected to continue through Thursday with PETSS
output showing tide levels exceeding 2 ft MSL.

MARINE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day
ahead of and along a cold front. Moderate onshore flow will taper
early Monday morning ahead of a cold front expected by midday
with weak to moderate northerly flow. SCA conditions will likely continue Wednesday into Wednesday night,
mainly for continued high seas. Onshore flow will return
Wednesday as high pressure shifts to the east. Rain chances will
also return Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another cold front is
set to move through the area late in the week, most likely
Thursday night or Friday morning. SCA conditions are expected once
again behind that front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  61  83  64  84  /  40   0   0   0  10
Victoria          80  55  81  55  83  /  30   0   0   0   0
Laredo            88  59  86  60  87  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             86  58  85  60  86  /  30   0   0   0  10
Rockport          82  66  81  69  82  /  40   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           84  56  86  57  87  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        87  59  85  62  86  /  30   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  69  80  70  81  /  40  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT Tuesday For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
     Nueces...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces
     Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TC/95...AVIATION


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