021
FXUS64 KCRP 041812
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
112 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Not much change in the pattern today with onshore flow persisting,
keeping a steady flow of low level moisture in the area. This will
keep the possibility for some more of those pesky light showers,
but not expecting anything measurable today. Additional Sierra
Madre convection will be possible this evening into the overnight,
and an isolated storm could drift across the Rio Grande late
tonight. As we head into Sunday morning, a fairly potent shortwave
pushes across the region, and could tap into a brief increase in
deep layer moisture transiting the area. This along with the
potential for a decaying MCS out of the north sagging in will add
up to a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow,
especially north. Overall not expecting much rain...largely under
a tenth of an inch, but some thunderstorms could produce briefly
heavy rainfall rates to result in some higher amounts. Northern
victoria county is clipped by both a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk of strong thunderstorms for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Key Messages:

- There will be a moderate to major risk of heat impacts from
Tuesday through Thursday.

Ensemble guidance for next week features the development of a
positively tilted 500 hPa trough extending from the Great Lakes to
the southwest CONUS. Southwest flow off the terrain of Mexico will
contribute to 850 hPa temperatures increasing to 25-30C Tuesday
through Thursday. Meanwhile, onshore flow will continue to advect
Gulf moisture into South Texas with both the NAEFS and ENS
forecasting 925 hPa specific humidity above the 90th percentile for
early May. This will result in hot and humid conditions during the
middle of next week.

While above normal low level moisture will be in place across the
region, mixing is expected to reduce humidity during the afternoon
hours which will put a small damper on the magnitude of the heat,
particularly out west. As a result, there is currently a 10-40%
chance of maximum heat index values exceeding our Heat Advisory
criteria of 110 degrees each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday,
with the highest likelihood on Thursday. However, mostly sunny skies
will increase heat stress beyond just the temperature and humidity
alone. Accounting for this heat stress due to direct sunlight, the
forecast WBGT currently indicates a High to Extreme threat of heat
stress across South Texas for 4-6 hours each afternoon. Additionally,
given that this will be the first prolonged stretch of above normal
heat for the year, bodies will not yet be acclimated to the heat
which will further increase the risk of heat illness. NWS`s new
experimental HeatRisk index which takes this acclimation into
account has a Moderate to Major Risk of heat impacts during the
middle of next week. This means that anyone without effective
cooling and/or hydration will be at risk of being affected by the
heat in addition to those especially sensitive to heat.

The good news is that there is hope for a respite from the heat
before the endless Texas summer settles in with some model guidance
brining a front through South Texas next weekend. Currently, CPC has
a 60% chance of near-to-below normal temperatures next weekend
through 17 May. May the odds be in our favor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR CIGs will continue over the majority of the forecast area
with only VCT that could see any VFR CIGs. With all of the
moisture in the low levels (sfc dewpoints around 70), patchy fog
(20-30% <5 miles) will reform tonight. the concern tonight into
Sunday morning will be for LRD, COT, and VCT as the front and dry
line, that has been stalled in central and west Texas, will sag
south. Models have been showing a low probability (20-30%) that
showers and thunderstorms will make it into VCT and LRD, and a
40% chance of getting into COT. so have put in VCTS for the
overnight period at those sites, and have left precipitation out
of ALI and CRP. As the disturbance and front move east, the CIGs
and VSBYs are expected to clear out by the afternoon.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue this weekend through
next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6
feet continuing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  87  75  88 /  20  40  10   0
Victoria          73  83  73  88 /  40  50  10   0
Laredo            76  91  76  97 /  30  50   0   0
Alice             74  88  74  92 /  30  40  10   0
Rockport          75  84  76  85 /  20  40  10   0
Cotulla           75  90  76  95 /  50  60  10   0
Kingsville        75  87  75  90 /  20  40  10   0
Navy Corpus       76  84  76  86 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....TWH
AVIATION...JSL/86