017
FXUS61 KCTP 081736
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
136 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level
troughs will keep it cooler and generally breezy with
comfortable humidity over the weekend. After a couple chances
for showers on Sunday (one during the monring and the second
occurring mainly over the northern Mountains), expect a
reinforcing shot of cool air Monday preceding a warming trend
toward the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered to broken cu have developed across much of central PA
this morning within a moist but deepening PBL. As the vertical
mixing increases to around 5 KFT AGL this afternoon, drier air
aloft will mix into the PBL, resulting in a decrease in the low
level cu later in the day. By that same time, upper level
cirrus will be working in from the west. The deeper mixing will
also help to transport WNW wind gusts of 20-25 mph to the
surface through the late afternoon hours. High temps will range
form near 70 in the north to the low 80s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model consensus continues to indicate a steady increase in a
dual layer of clouds tonight and the next period of showers
late tonight into early Sunday morning as another shortwave
trough and cold front moves through the region.

The showers will be most numerous across the NW part of the
state, where they are progged to begin around midnight. Rain
showers will then move eastward through central PA between
midnight and 8 AM Sunday, gradually diminishing in coverage
across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. Most locations will see
less than 0.10 inch of rain, with the majority of the measurable
precip falling prior to 8 AM. A few showers will linger into the
mid-morning hours across the Lower Susq.

Skies will be on a clearing trend from mid morning into the
afternoon Sunday, making for another pleasant early June day.
There could be some isolated to scattered showers or
thundershowers in the northern tier during the afternoon and
evening (PoPs less than 40 pct), otherwise the afternoon looks
dry with continued breezy conditions and relative cool temps for
this time of year with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the
north to near 80 in the southern tier.

Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days. The
approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front dropping
SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun, along with
some afternoon and evening showers across primarily the Central
and NW 2/3 of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. After
that, we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late
week with 90s possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Mainly dry conditions from Tuesday through Thursday as a lack of
moisture will leave central PA in a position where showers will
struggle to develop despite the upper level low and progressive
troughing pattern. There could be some showers and t-storms by
late week, as cold fronts drop southeastward across the area by
Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited
at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern
provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture
gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance
that far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the
week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1730 UTC Sat, all TAF sites were VFR. SCT-BKN cu persists
across much of central PA, with bases between 3000 and 5000 ft.
A decrease in cu coverage is expected by late afternoon as some
drier air begins to mix into the BL from above. Wind gusts of
20-30 kts will continue through the afternoon.

Winds taper off Saturday night as ceilings lower ahead of a
fast moving cold front that will bring a chance of a few showers
(mainly during the predawn hours Sunday). IFR ceilings are
likely at BFD by 09z Sunday with MVFR probable during the
predawn hours at JST and UNV, and possible at AOO and IPT. LLWS
conditions may also develop for a brief period of time ahead of
the cold front during the late night and predawn hours, mainly
for central and western TAF sites. Conds will trend toward VFR
areawide by late morning Sunday, although a scattered
afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA will be poss for BFD and the
northern tier.

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR cigs poss, mainly north

Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Banghoff/Colbert