Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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948 FXUS61 KCTP 040829 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 429 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... *Warmest day of the week Tuesday with a stray shower possible *Cloudy and humid with showers and a thunderstorm Wed-Thu *Cooler/more comfortable stretch Fri-Sun with passing showers && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Patchy fog in the valleys early this morning; otherwise mostly sunny and very warm today (warmest day of the week) with highs in the 80-90F range or +5-15 degrees above early June climo. 580dm ridge over CPA should help to maintain dry wx in most locations this afternoon and evening. However, strong diurnal heating may be enough to break through a weak capping inversion and trigger isolated PM convection. Latest HREF suggests the best chance of a stray pulse type shower/t-storm will be along the southern tier ridges into WV/MD panhandle where pwats ramp to 1-1.3 in. An increasingly moist (higher pwats & dewpoints) southeast flow ahead of an upstream warm front over the Ohio Valley will send POPs on a upward trend from late tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect a muggy overnight with fairly uniform min temps in the 60-65F range (+10-15F above climo) with low stratus and patchy fog developing over the majority of CPA/east of the Allegheny Front by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Latest suite of medium range guidance expands coverage of showers Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon with max POPs occurring Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The best instability/chance for t-storms is over the southwestern zones where a conditional late day severe wx threat is possible. PWs climb to 1.25-2.00 inches by 00Z Thu which favors potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts -- WPC has maintained a MRGL ERO over the entire forecast area for the day 2 period. Model consensus shows QPF max shifting to the east Thursday morning as the frontal system moves across PA. The remainder of Thursday should feature scattered showers/PM t-storm as upper low and cooler temps aloft begin to impinge on the area. Most of this activity will be diurnally driven with little to no precip expected Thursday night. Persistent low clouds and southeast wind favor cooler max temps Wednesday (5-10 deg lower than today) with highs in the 70-80F range. Post frontal westerly/downslope flow along with breaks of sun in the dry slot should push temps back up on Thursday with highs peaking in the mid 80s in the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The main weather feature for Central PA through next weekend will be a slow-moving upper low, tracking from the eastern Great Lakes across southern Ontario and Quebec. As a result, at least hit and miss showers and possible thunderstorms are expected on a daily basis, with diurnally more numerous coverage anticipated in the afternoon and early evening hours, particularly for the northern tier of the Commonwealth. Current indications are that by early next week, the upper low should begin to fill and drift northeast, with showers and storms becoming less prevalent over time. Temperatures are likely to average somewhat below climatology for early to mid-June, with daily highs in the upper 60s and 70s, and overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dewpoints slowly coming down since I came in late evening, thus fog very limited so far. Some fog at BFD at times. Expect any low CIGS and fog to quickly burn off this morning, given the early sunrise time. Like yesterday, looking at a mainly dry day with high pressure nearby. A slight chance of a shower or storm, mainly over the south. Will follow earlier shifts and leave showers and storms out of the fcst for now. For Wednesday morning, a slightly higher chance of some fog and lower clouds. This based on dewpoints coming up a bit around sunrise, given the southeast flow. More in the way of showers and storms will be possible late Wednesday into Thursday, as a cold front moves across the region. Outlook... Wed-Thu...More numerous showers and thunderstorms, with at least brief restrictions. Fri-Sat...Hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms with brief restrictions, otherwise mostly VFR. && .CLIMATE... Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl/Banghoff LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Fitzgerald AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Steinbugl