020
FXUS63 KDDC 091727
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cool temperatures expected today.

- Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to extreme southwest
  Kansas Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building as it transitions
east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a cold front
is pushing south through the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.

Lingering showers early this morning are expected to give way to
Tranquil conditions through the remainder of the period as the
SREF indicates ridging aloft continuing to slowly build as it
drifts eastward through the Colorado Rockies into the Western
High Plains. A weakening flow aloft and a lack of instability
present as surface high pressure dominates the Upper Midwest/Central
Plains will hinder precip chances (<10%) through tonight. Well
below normal temperatures are forecast today as dominating surface
high pressure in the Upper Midwest helps reinforce a cooler air
mass settled across southwest/central Kansas with H85 temperatures
holding around to a little above 15C. The HREF indicates a 30-50%
probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in west central Kansas
to a 70-90% probability of highs exceeding 75F farther east. For
tonight, there is a 20-30% probability of temperatures dropping
below 60F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 80-90% probability
of lows falling below 60F in central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Minimal shower/thunderstorm chances (20-30%) are forecast Monday and
Tuesday as medium range ensembles show a weak upper level shortwave
trough sliding southeast out of the Southern Rockies into panhandles
of Oklahoma/Texas. A prevailing southeasterly upslope flow on the
back side of a departing surface high will draw ample moisture into
western Kansas, pushing dewpoints well up into the 50s(F) Monday,
and farther up into the 60s(F) Tuesday. Although a prevailing flow
aloft will remain relatively weak, steepening mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient instability in an axis of low level convergence
associated with a lee side trough will support the potential for
diurnally driven thunderstorm development both days. According
to the NBM, the best chance for thunderstorms will be across
extreme southwest Kansas Monday and farther east near and along
the Oklahoma border Tuesday where there is a 20-40% probability
of 12-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch. A drier pattern sets
up mid-week as ridging aloft builds northeast out of the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains.

Below normal temperatures continue Monday as a cooler air mass is
slow to erode behind departing surface high pressure. The NBM paints
only a 20-30% probability of temperatures climbing above 80F in
extreme southwest Kansas to a 70-80% probability of higher than 80F
in central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures return mid-week with
the NBM indicating a 70-80% probability of highs exceeding 85F in
central Kansas to 90% probability of temperatures topping 85F in
extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

BUFR soundings and the latest short term models are in good
agreement that the low clouds, ceilings below 2000ft AGL, at 18z
today will slowly erode early tonight at Dodge City, Garden
City, and Hays. In Liberal, it looks like moisture and lift
occurring north of a surface boundary will result in some
lingering MVFR ceiling conditions through Monday. Currently, the
latest short-term models have ceilings in the Liberal area
ranging from 2,000 ft AGL to 3,500 ft AGL. The chance for
ceilings to be below 3,000 ft is 20% to 40% after 21Z Today.
East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots this Sunday afternoon
will decrease to less than 10 knots and become southeast by 12Z
Monday as an area of high pressure builds into western Kansas
overnight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert