Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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273 FXUS63 KDDC 010551 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several more opportunities of rain in the forecast from tonight through Monday morning - Highest severe risk looks to be Saturday with downburst winds being the main threat - High confidence in 90 degree temperatures in southwest Kansas early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 18z observation show residual cloud cover from last nights storms and a passing shortwave in central and southwest Kansas keeping temperatures down across the region. In the upper levels a shortwave moving over the Colorado rockies is developing and thunderstorms are starting to form along the I-25 corridor. For tonight storms are expected to develop from the Denver metro south to near Trinidad through the afternoon and approach southwest Kansas between 00-02Z. CAPE values at this time are forecast to be around 750-1000 J/kg and bulk shear will be in the 40 kt range so marginal severe storms are possible with hail up to quarters and gusty winds mainly from the Colorado border to US 83. Highest rainfall amounts will also be in these areas as we could see 0.25-0.75 inches of rain in the stronger storms. Storms should progress eastward after midnight and become more isolated to widely scattered before ending by sunrise. Saturday we will start out with residual cloud cover in the east and sunshine in the west. By mid to late morning short term models are showing an upper level shortwave in southwest Kansas and HRRR/RAP models both have a line of convection breaking out around 18Z along the US283 corridor. Storms will most likely have an low CAPE in the lower levels and around 1500 J/kg CAPE in the mid to upper levels and 40 kts bulk shear. These initial storms could have the threat of hail to golf ball size and wind gusts to 60 mph. Storms should quickly move into central Kansas by late afternoon. Saturday night another 700 mb shortwave should develop thunderstorms in eastern Colorado and enter western Kansas by around 03Z. If this area isn`t affected by the afternoon convection we should have enough CAPE and shear that severe storms with quarter hail and winds over 60 mph are possible. As the storms move further east the HRRR has the complex evolving into a long squall line moving through much of western Kansas during the overnight hours spreading widespread rainfall and downburst potential through 08Z. Depending on how much instability we have remaining from the afternoon convection will largely determine the severe threat for the overnight storms. SPC has the whole area under a slight risk mainly for wind gusts and this is certainly the case Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Ensembles show the upper level pattern in the long term staying mainly zonal through next Tuesday and then a large ridge developing for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall it should be mainly quiet with the exception of Sunday where another passing shortwave will develop in northeast Colorado and thunderstorms are expected to move across mainly northwest and north central Kansas. These storms should also drop an outflow boundary/cold front for Monday. Ensemble clusters for temperatures next week are showing higher confidence of 90 degree temperatures next week with the mean of the ensembles in the lower 90s and some of the outliers in the upper 90 degree range. With the warmer air mass in the desert southwest expanding into the central and southern plains forecasting 850 mb temperatures in the 22-25(C) range and the lack of clouds and storms we have high confidence in this warmer stretch of weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Short term models are in good agreement with a cluster of thunderstorms crossing southwest Kansas through 10Z this Saturday morning. As these storms pass, a brief period of ceilings as low as 2000 to 3000 ft AGL will be possible, but the primary ceilings will be at or above 3000 ft AGL. Winds will be the main hazard, with gusts up to 40 knots possible, mainly in the Garden City and Dodge City areas. Stratus and fog will be the main issue overnight in the Hays area, with BUFR soundings and the latest ceiling/visibility probabilities indicating a period of LIFR conditions possible between 08Z and 15Z. These ceilings will improve, and the thunderstorms will end from northwest to southeast early this Saturday morning, with clearing skies expected between 15Z and 18Z today. Winds overnight and Saturday will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Burgert