214
FXUS63 KDDC 052041
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
341 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Return to thunderstorm chances early Friday morning with some
  severe weather potential early in the day, mainly southern
  areas closer to the Oklahoma line.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely from Friday
  morning through Sunday, however timing and track of individual
  thunderstorm system is still very uncertain.

- Much of next week looks dry as high pressure builds in and
  much more stable air mass in place

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

This Short Term period (Tonight through Thursday Night) will be one
of the quietest 36-hour periods we have seen in awhile with
essentially no chance for rain or thunderstorms...until very late
in this period.

On the synoptic scale, water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed a
broad ridge of high pressure extending across much of the western
CONUS extending east across the Central and Southern Plains. A
formidable shortwave trough was moving southeast across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region this afternoon which will bring another
cold front south across western Kansas early Thursday morning. Winds
will increase to 15 to 25 mph behind the front, particularly gusty
once some insolation begins after sunrise tomorrow morning. The
front will also drop surface dewpoints well down into the 40s
keeping the entire forecast area stable to convective storms.
Despite the strong northeast winds and low level cold advection, a
full day`s worth of early-June direct insolation will still allow
afternoon temperatures warm to the mid to upper 80s for highs.

Tomorrow night, low level winds will veer around to the east-
southeast and eventually southeast, becoming increasingly warm
frontogenetic in the 06-12Z Friday time frame. Elevated
thunderstorms, initiating within the 850-700mb warm frontogenetic
zone, will be possible very early Friday morning, but there is quite
a bit of uncertainty in placement of these early morning storms, so
POPs will not be any higher than 30% on this forecast cycle for the
early Friday morning period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The period from Friday through the weekend is still looking quite
active with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely across
the west central Great Plains.

To kick off this active pattern will likely be some morning elevated
convection as a warm front strengthens aloft (mainly 850-700mb
layer). Rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will advance northward, above
the surface, very early Friday morning yielding 2000-3500 J/kg
MUCAPE. This would certainly be enough, along with 30-40 knots of
vertical wind shear magnitude from 850-500mb, to support severe
storms. The size of an early Friday morning MCS is uncertain and
will have at least some impact on destabilization later in the day
for surface-based convection.

The broad west-northwest flow across the Rockies in the mid
troposphere is an ideal setup for High Plains mesoscale convective
system (MCS) development. Timing and placement of individual MCSs is
far too uncertainty to predict over the weekend, however latest
global model consensus is the best chance for the most
favorable MCS activity across much of southwest/west central
Kansas will be late Saturday or Saturday Night.

As we head in to Sunday, signals from the latest global models
(deterministic and ensemble systems) show an increasingly amplified
upper level pattern with mean ridging across the Rockies and mean
troughing across the eastern CONUS. This will push the effective
polar front well to the south of southwest Kansas by late in the
weekend in addition to the best thunderstorm chances to our south
and west up against the higher terrain. Early next week looks quite
stable to widespread convection across western Kansas. After that,
models diverge significantly regarding the upper level pattern and
resulting low level thermodynamic and kinematic fields.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Aviation weather will be good through this TAF period with the
only sensible weather impact being wind direction/speed. The
afternoon winds will be from the west-southwest at 12 to 16
knots, becoming light and variable by early this evening. A cold
front will push south overnight, reaching southwest Kansas
terminals in the 10-14Z time frame when winds will become
northeasterly, increasing back to 14 to 18 knots sustained.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid