Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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510 FXUS63 KDDC 011710 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The opportunity for rain will be possible today and again on Sunday. - Highest severe risk looks to be late today and tonight downburst winds and quarter size hail being the main hazards. - 90 degree highs return to southwest Kansas on Monday and based on the latest forecast humidity late day there will be a few locations (east and south of Dodge City) where the heat index values will top out in the upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Short term models remain in good agreement as several subtle upper waves embedded in the westerly flow crosses eastern Colorado and western Kansas later today and again on Sunday. A moist upslope flow will be present both days ahead of a surface boundary located across eastern Kansas and with improving low level forcing developing each afternoon along this surface boundary plus a >90% chance for CAPE values to be >1000j/kg each day along and ahead of this boundary, the conditions are favorable for thunderstorm development both days. Based on the SREF earlier this morning the 0-6km shear >40knots late today/early tonight will range from 50-70%. Sunday the chance for >40 knot shear is not as good 10-30% so chance for severe thunderstorms may be limited to the thunderstorms later today and overnight. Currently given the environment from the majority of the CAMS the main hazards will be quarter size hail or larger, and wind gusts up to 65 mph. The hail risk will primarily be before sunset. Another reason am favoring tonight over Sunday night for strong to severe thunderstorms is due to the developing low level jet develops, good 850-700mb moisture transport with little CIN is forecast by several CAMS, This suggest that thunderstorms tonight may linger longer as they cross southwest Kansas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As we head into early next week the 850 to 700 mb temperatures will warm on Monday as the mid level baroclinic zone that has been over southwest Kansas the last several days moves north and east. This will allow highs to return to the 90s for much of southwest Kansas. Also given the recent rainfall, these 90-degree afternoon temperatures combined with forecast humidity values currently forecast across southwest Kansas result in heat index readings climbing into the upper 90s in some locations, mainly east and south of Dodge City. On Tuesday all the mean ensembles are in good agreement on a more significant upper level trough crossing the central plains. However, given the location of the mid-level baroclinic zone, the chance for precipitation with this upper trough will be limited to central Kansas and along the I-70 corridor. This upper trough will bring cooler air into southwest Kansas by midweek. Mid to late week, we are a bit surprised by the lack of a warmup in temperatures, especially west of Dodge City given that all the ensembles appear to be in decent agreement with a developing northwest flow as an upper ridge over the western United States slowly moves east toward the Four Corners region. Further east, it is understandable to keep temperatures on the cooler side as multiple upper waves rotate around an upper low over the Great Lakes, which will maintain a surface boundary somewhere in central or western Kansas. The exact location of this boundary is uncertain, and confidence in pinpointing it that far out is low. As a result, I will stay close to the current forecast. However, for locations west of Dodge City, do not be surprised if high temperatures climb into the mid 90s late in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Latest surface observations show clear skies/VFR flying conditions prevail across all terminals, with south-southwest winds in the 10-15 kt range. Later this afternoon/early evening, thunderstorm development is expected near the KS/CO border, expanding in coverage with time as it moves east-southeast. This activity will likely impact all terminals, with the highest confidence at DDC, GCK, and LBL during the 23-04Z time frame, bringing MVFR/IFR or lower cigs and vis. Once convection exits the area, south-southeast winds will resume aoa 12 kts through sunrise. Towards the end of the period around 13-14Z, winds will increase out of the south into the 17-22 kt range with gusts of 27-32 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Springer