261
FXUS63 KDVN 181858
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
158 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Active weather returns to the area Thursday through Monday.

- There is a SLGT risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of
  eastern IA Thursday late afternoon through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Tonight: One more quiet night ahead with partly cloudy skies
with some cirrus clouds. Lows in the mid to upper 50s east to
the lower 60s west.

Thursday: After about 3 weeks of dry weather the pattern begins
to become much more active. We start out with a bang with SPC
highlighting portions of eastern IA in a SLGT risk (Level 2 of 5)
for portions of eastern IA, with a MRGL risk roughly to the MS
River. While isolated showers are possible on Thursday, the bulk
of the showers and storms, some severe, will arrive late in the
afternoon through the evening.

Severe potential:

A seasonably strong stacked low in southern Manitoba will send a
cold front southeast towards the forecast area. This will pull
very warm and increasing humid air into our area with highs in
the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s in a couple of spots.
Dewpoints will also increase well into the 60s ahead of the
front. Models show mid level winds from the west strengthening
to 40 kts during the afternoon and evening. Shear/instability
will be more than sufficient to support the potential for large
hail and damaging winds, with the activity weakening by late
evening with the loss of instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Active weather continues Friday through Monday with zonal west
to east flow across North America. There are two closed 500 MB
lows that will bring chances of showers and storms to the area
during this time period. The first passes to our north Saturday
into Saturday night. The second will lift from the southern High
Plains and cross the area Sunday into early next week. Models
continue to disagree on the timing and placement of these storms
and any interaction between the two late this weekend into
early next week. This continues to result in broad brush POPS
across the area through the period. This will also result in
cooler high temperatures especially Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

High pressure will continue to bring quiet flying VFR conds
through Thursday morning. South to southeast winds around 10 kts
or less.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase/Cousins
AVIATION...Haase