316
ACUS01 KWNS 131231
SWODY1
SPC AC 131230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
Glancingly influenced by the Great Lakes/Ontario/western Quebec
upper-level trough, pre-frontal convergence/terrain will contribute
to scattered thunderstorm development into this afternoon within a
moist air mass. Most storms will tend to remain disorganized/pulse
in nature across the Mid-Atlantic. However, modestly stronger
mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells
particularly across central/northern portions of New York and
Pennsylvania, where a Slight Risk appears warranted for a somewhat
focused corridor of severe storm potential. Wind/tree damage will be
the primary hazard regionally.

...Florida...
With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central
Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state,
with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development expected to be
most prominent across the eastern half of the Peninsula. Amid
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small
hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be
possible from mid-afternoon to early evening.

...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley...
One or more MCVs should persist generally eastward across the
Ozarks, potentially maintaining a modestly enhanced mid/low-level
flow field through the diurnal heating cycle. This could influence
organized storms this afternoon through early evening, potentially
including a few supercells and linear segments. Damaging winds will
be possible, and brief tornado potential cannot be ruled out.

...South-central/East Texas...
A nearly-stationary MCS is ongoing this morning across south-central
Texas with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for
details). Potential MCV influences and composite outflow and
differential heating may contribute to strong/severe thunderstorm
development into peak heating, mainly on the southern/eastern
periphery of the early morning MCS. Isolated wet microbursts capable
of wind damage would be the most probable severe hazard aside from
rainfall-related aspects.

...Upper Midwest...
In the wake of a mid-level trough passage this morning, a strong
mid-level jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces.
Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should
shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern
Dakotas to western Minnesota by late afternoon. This should aid in
strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough
approaching northeast Minnesota to the Mid-Missouri Valley. The
northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for
potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest
mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy
plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front,
should modulate overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large
hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible
from late afternoon until around sunset.

...Southwest...
As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great
Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern New Mexico,
turning to easterlies over southeast Arizona. Widespread storms are
expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south
to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in
buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High
Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over New Mexico.
Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into
southeast Arizona.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/13/2025

$$