751
ACUS01 KWNS 130046
SWODY1
SPC AC 130045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late
evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States.

...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO...
An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more
hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the
higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central
NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear
and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish
after dusk.

...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX...
Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of
multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW
values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain
the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a
couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust
threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective
development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over
the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat
in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as
storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy
rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk).

...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont...
Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before
disorganized convection further subsides.

..Grams.. 07/13/2025

$$