749
FXUS63 KEAX 020545
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1245 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for several rounds of storms returns Sunday morning
  through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A weakly amplified pattern currently dominates the Central Plains
States as a weak disturbance/MCV, that brought rain yesterday and
overnight, continue to slowly drift east; while a weak ridge axis
is noted over the Rockies in response to a trough making landfall
across the Pacific coast. On radar, a few lingering showers are seen
across central and eastern Missouri thanks to diurnal heating under
the center of the exiting MCV. What activity is out there will
continue to move east and thus will not be an issue for the west
half of Missouri, or Kansas, tonight. What we will watch for tonight
is another weak shortwave, currently moving through the ridge axis
to our west, which is expected to develop another convective system
across the Western High Plains. Currently, expectations are that the
complex will move east with the help of the nocturnal jet, but will
likely start falling apart in the morning as the jet mixes out. Have
kept some low end POPs for Sunday morning as a result.

Sunday night through Tuesday will see the quick return of another
couple rounds of storms to the region as a couple of troughs
move across the Nation. Sunday night into Monday, the trough
currently across the Pacific coast will push through the Rockies
initiating another round of overnight convection off the High
Plains. This activity would likely arrive in eastern Kansas and
western Missouri early Monday morning, spreading across Missouri
and falling apart through the day. While this activity does not
look overly organized at this time, there is sufficient shear
that strong to damaging winds will be possible as the storms
arrive. However, this is not the end. Another trough, currently
off the Pacific coast, will sweep east into the Plains Monday
night into Tuesday. This will result in a deepening trough
across the Northern Plains which will help push a cold front
across Kansas and Missouri Tuesday afternoon and evening, which
will likely be the focus for storms in that time period.
Otherwise, once the mid-work-week trough moves through expect
dry conditions to prevail through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Could see some dense fog across central Missouri through 15Z
back into the region with light easterly flow near the surface.
This should burn off through the morning hours. A more
consistent southeast wind will develop through the morning
hours, potenially becoming marginally gusty through the
afternoon hours. The big unknown in this pattern is when
convection will be focused through the period. With such high
uncertainty, left mention out of the TAFs but this doesn`t imply
there is no threat. Once timing is more clear, an update will be
needed.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ008.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...BT