241
FXUS63 KEAX 012252
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for several rounds of storms returns Sunday morning
  through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A weakly amplified pattern currently dominates the Central Plains
States as a weak disturbance/MCV, that brought rain yesterday and
overnight, continue to slowly drift east; while a weak ridge axis
is noted over the Rockies in response to a trough making landfall
across the Pacific coast. On radar, a few lingering showers are seen
across central and eastern Missouri thanks to diurnal heating under
the center of the exiting MCV. What activity is out there will
continue to move east and thus will not be an issue for the west
half of Missouri, or Kansas, tonight. What we will watch for tonight
is another weak shortwave, currently moving through the ridge axis
to our west, which is expected to develop another convective system
across the Western High Plains. Currently, expectations are that the
complex will move east with the help of the nocturnal jet, but will
likely start falling apart in the morning as the jet mixes out. Have
kept some low end POPs for Sunday morning as a result.

Sunday night through Tuesday will see the quick return of another
couple rounds of storms to the region as a couple of troughs
move across the Nation. Sunday night into Monday, the trough
currently across the Pacific coast will push through the Rockies
initiating another round of overnight convection off the High
Plains. This activity would likely arrive in eastern Kansas and
western Missouri early Monday morning, spreading across Missouri
and falling apart through the day. While this activity does not
look overly organized at this time, there is sufficient shear
that strong to damaging winds will be possible as the storms
arrive. However, this is not the end. Another trough, currently
off the Pacific coast, will sweep east into the Plains Monday
night into Tuesday. This will result in a deepening trough
across the Northern Plains which will help push a cold front
across Kansas and Missouri Tuesday afternoon and evening, which
will likely be the focus for storms in that time period.
Otherwise, once the mid-work-week trough moves through expect
dry conditions to prevail through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with mostly clr skies
expected thru 06Z-08Z when bkn-ovc high clouds are expected to move
into the TAF sites. The main concern for aviators will come btn 13Z-
17Z when a decaying line of thunderstorms are expected to impact the
terminals however conds are expected to remain VFR with ovc cigs btn
6-8kft and vsbys reduced to 6SM. Byd 17Z...storms will come to
an end with bkn cigs btn 4-5kft. Winds thru 13Z will generally
be lgt and vrb before increasing to 5-10kts out of the south.
Aft 17Z wind will increase out of the south to 10-15kts with
gusts around 20kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...73