272
FXUS63 KEAX 010452
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to expand east
  this evening across southern and central Missouri, with more scattered
  activity farther north.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night
  through Tuesday night. Additional heavy rain are possible with
  these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Looking at the big picture, satellite imagery this afternoon shows a
ridge axis off to our east with a big trough across Canada dipping
into the Northern Plains. This would have left Kansas and Missouri
with a locally zonal flow across the Plains States if a large MCV
had not developed overnight.

The forecast hasn`t changed much in the past 12 hours. The MCV, that
overnight convection developed to our west, is still slowly
spinning its way east along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. This has
left eastern Kansas and western Missouri with cloudy skies and
scattered showers through the day thus far thanks to the feed of
moisture from the Gulf. Model output, and simple persistence,
indicates that the MCV will continue east overnight with
widespread showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorm activity
across southern, central, and northeast Missouri overnight.
Additional rainfall totals might bring some minor flooding, but
that is not really expected at this time as totals will likely
be less than half and inch.

Saturday...should be dry after the MCV moves far enough east
tomorrow morning. This will allow temperatures to rebound a bit for
the start of the weekend with highs both Saturday and Sunday around
80.

Sunday into next work week...will see the arrival of our next chance
of rain as a shortwave moves through what will be a zonal flow
across much of the Nation. Expect the chance for rain to return
Sunday and persist through the start of the work week, with
rain possible Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Otherwise, even
with the expected rain, and cloud cover that comes with it,
currently we expect to see temperatures ranging through the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Rainfall has been shifting out of the area with MVFR ceilings
gradually moving in. Ceilings are expected to fall into IFR by
morning, especially at the southern TAF sites. IXD may even fall
into LIFR, but confidence is not high at this time. After
sunrise expect graduall improvement to MVFR with VFR returning
by late morning/early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...HB