008
FXUS63 KEAX 142335
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly-above normal temperatures expected over the next
  week, topping out in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

- Low-end chances (15-25%) for showers and a few thunderstorms
  Sunday, mainly east of Highway 65.

- Slight chances for precipitation return Wednesday and
  Thursday, mainly across far eastern Kansas and western
  Missouri before widespread precipitation chances build in by
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a weak Rex-
blocking pattern set up over and near the Ohio River valley, a
narrow upper level ridge over the central Plains, and troughing over
much of the western CONUS. This morning saw persistent stratus and
some patchy areas of fog linger due to the presence of the deepening
Rex block that has been able to deepen as the remnants of tropical
system Francine hang out across the south-central Mississippi River
valley. Cloud cover will continue to scatter our this afternoon as
high temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s area-wide. By this
evening and overnight, low-level southeast/easterly flow will
reinforce low level moisture as surface ridging stalls just east of
the area in southeastern Iowa. Areas that see significant clearing
overnight could again see some patchy fog development around sunrise
Sunday (mainly areas of western Missouri and eastern Kansas) with
other areas keeping a low stratus deck overhead (mainly across north-
central Missouri).

By Sunday, aforementioned areas across north-central MO and portions
of central Missouri should begin to see scattered shower and storm
chances increase late morning and afternoon as mid-level vorticity
maximums move into the area, paired with some isentropic ascent.
Maintained low-end PoPs (15-25%) to account for precip chances,
mainly staying east of Hwy 65. No hazardous weather is expected, but
a thunderstorm or two will be possible by the afternoon as some
elevated instability becomes available. Expect highs to top out in
the low 80s east of Hwy 65 and mid to upper 80s across western MO
and eastern KS.

Monday and Tuesday will see a tropical system enter the coastal
Carolinas region, helping to elongate the Rex Blocking pattern and
begin to deamplify and weaken it. A subtle eastern shift in the
upper low should usher in weak upper level ridging over western and
central Missouri leading to mostly dry conditions with temperatures
again topping out in the 80s each afternoon. Cannot rule out some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon across far
eastern portions of the warning area as some lingering mid-level
vorticity hangs out over the area, but PoPs will continue to
decrease heading into Tuesday as mid-level ridging builds in.

Wednesday and heading into the weekend should usher in some active
weather as troughing over the western CONUS moves east into the
Midwest. A slow shift of the mid-level ridge axis overhead will
continue to push precip chances further east, but for the majority
of the time Wednesday into Friday, the best chance for PoPs (20-30%)
should stay across far eastern KS and western MO where better PVA
will be realized. By the weekend, a frontal boundary is progged to
slide southeast across the area, increasing PoPs across the entire
area and bringing temperatures closer to average; dipping down into
the 70s during the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

SCT 4K cloud cover will continue to diminish through early
evening becoming SCT 20Kft overnight. Some shallow ground fog
may develop across the area but confidence in development and
how widespread it will remains low most TAF sites except higher
confidence for STJ. For now will keep it out of the other TAFs
but for STJ can VIS drop early morning between 12z-16z to 4SM
with BKN 2K before clearing in late morning. Winds south-
southeasterly with 10Kts across most TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MAK