Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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983 FXUS63 KEAX 162337 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...Updated 00z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are likely to continue through Friday. - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, along with cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by a large closed low over north central California with associated troughing across much of the western CONUS and ridging with large positive 850 mb temperature anomalies over much of the Plains. A subtle shortwave trough translating through the south southwesterly mid level flow off the Front Range has generated some convection over central Kansas, but this is expected to decay before it reaches our area. Diurnally driven isolated to scattered pop up showers have developed across portions of central and northern Missouri within the last half hour. These should come to an end later this afternoon with the loss of peak afternoon heating. High temperatures should reach the mid to even upper 80s by mid afternoon. Some patchy fog may be possible early tomorrow morning, and some showers may be possible tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon across far NW Missouri. Otherwise, tomorrow should remain dry with high temperatures in the upper 80s. As we head into Wednesday, the aforementioned mid level low and trough over the west coast finally ejects across the central to northern Plains, with an accompanying surface cold front nudging its way into western Kansas. This will reintroduce slight chance to chance PoPs on Wednesday, primarily for our far eastern Kansas counties. Otherwise, high temperatures look to remain in the upper 80s. On Thursday, stronger ridging builds in east and south of a pair of troughs over the west coast and the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This should yield high temperatures into the lower 90s for most locations with breezy southerly winds and dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Similar conditions are likely to prevail into Friday, although temperatures and dew points may be a degree or two warmer. Heat indices may range from the mid to upper 90s on Friday afternoon, which will feel quite uncomfortable for September 20th. Low end PoPs will be possible both Thursday morning and again for Friday morning and afternoon. The aforementioned mid level low and associated trough over southern California is progged to eject across the Rockies and into the central High Plains this weekend, bringing higher end chances for showers and thunderstorms. These showers/storms could bring some much needed rainfall (ensembles and probabilistic guidance suggest around a 20-30% chance for rainfall to exceed 0.5" for eastern Kansas/NW Missouri/western Missouri). Cooler temperatures are also likely for the weekend, especially on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Scattered cloud cover is moving across the area but all bases are at least 5-6 kft. Gusty winds from this afternoon will continue to diminish with sunset. Fog is expected in central Missouri, but right now not seeing any signal for fog at the terminals so will leave visibility VFR for Tuesday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Krull