868
FXUS64 KEPZ 242014
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
214 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Warm and very dry weather will continue across the Borderland for
through this weekend and into much of next week. Saturday will see
the strongest winds and extreme fire conditions; Sunday will be
breezy but not as strong as Saturday. Winds after Sunday should be
limited to just some typical afternoon breezes. On the flip side
though, temperatures will climb as the winds diminish. By Tuesday
and Wednesday, much of the lowlands will experience their first
triple digit readings of the season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Deepening trough just crossing into California early this
afternoon, with moderate sub-tropical jet ahead of it over the
CWA. Some patches of high clouds will continue over our area in
this flow tonight, otherwise no significant issues. Saturday
however will see some issues, mainly in the name of critical to
extreme fire weather conditions. Humidity will remain very low;
meanwhile aforementioned upper trough will sweep across the area,
reaching New Mexico around noon time and to eastern New Mexico by
late afternoon. This is perfect timing for winds; combine this
with relatively deep lee low over SE Colorado and attendant
pressure gradient and we will see gusty winds. Thus, Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for Saturday for all fire zones. Winds
should remain just below advisory criteria. You have to look at
90th percentile and above of the NBM wind gusts to hit the
criteria (50+ mph), so at this time Wind Advisory does not look to
be needed.

Finally, Sunday and beyond, the winds look to subside back down to
the more typical afternoon breezes of 10-20 mph. The tradeoff,
there always is one, is we begin to really heat up. Central
American upper high gradually builds northward to Mexico and the
southwestern US. By Tuesday, h85 temps support scattered areas of
the lowlands reaching 100 degrees. El Paso record highs from
Tuesday through Friday range from 102-104 degrees, so some records
could fall. Even looking at the NBM 95th percentile, high temps
still remain around 104, so a bit below dangerous category. Still
people will have to take precautions as this is the first heat
wave of the season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds
southwest/west 12-16G25 knots diminishing to west 8-12 knots
after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Fire conditions rise to critical to extreme Saturday as our winds
increase with the already very low humidity and dry fuels. Thus, a
Red Flag Warning will continue for Saturday for all fire zones.
Winds to 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph will develop.
Fortunately the remainder of the forecast period will settle down
to more typical afternoon breezes. However temperatures will
continue to climb, which will further dry out various fuels. So
expect fire conditions to remain elevated through most of next
week.

Min RHs: Lowlands 4-8% through Wednesday. Mountains 8-15% through
Wednesday. Vent rates very good to excellent through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  92  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  93  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  68  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    56  88  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              50  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   53  90  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                54  88  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  93  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                56  94  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             58  99  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               57  87  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   61  96  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             56  92  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           64  91  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            55  89  49  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    56  91  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  91  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  89  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  81  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                47  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 44  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  46  80  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                52  85  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                51  88  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  80  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   47  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    41  86  40  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               37  80  38  83 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  50  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  88  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  89  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  88  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner