410
FXUS64 KEPZ 041740
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1140 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Today will be another very warm and mostly sunny day with high
temperatures running a few degrees above average. We will be even
hotter on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures running 5
to 10 degrees above average. High temperatures on Thursday will
be near 105 degrees or a little above for most lowland locations.
A heat advisory is in effect for Wednesday and Thursday. We will
see a slight chance for rain Thursday evening through the weekend.
High temperatures for Friday through Sunday will continue to run
around 5 to 7 degrees above seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

We will have another day of very warm temperatures and very dry
RH`s. A northwest flow aloft will keep us high and dry with only
some occasional high clouds. Then starting on Wednesday we will
see an upper level ridge begin to build into the region. This
ridge may be around for the next couple of weeks, which could lead
to an extended period of hot weather. High temperatures on
Wednesday will run 5 to 7 degrees above average and with the
upper level ridge centered right over southern New Mexico on
Thursday we will see high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees
above average. Lowland high temperatures will be near or a little
above 105 degrees for both Wednesday and Thursday so a Heat
Advisory is in effect for those two days for southern Dona Ana
County, El Paso County and the Rio Grande Valley of Hudspeth
County.

With the upper level ridge sitting over the region it will slow
the westerly winds aloft and allow some moisture to slip into the
area from the south and east. The NBM model seems to be over doing
the rain chances each day for Thursday through Sunday, so I have
backed those rain chances off some. With only a meager moisture
influx, we will still be pretty dry near the surface.
Thunderstorms that develop in a dry environment have the
possibility of having some strong outflow winds. If thunderstorms
do pop up on during the afternoons of Thursday through Sunday
those storms could produce some strong wind gusts that could
travel a fair distance from the parent storms.

For Friday and through the start of next week the high
temperatures will depend a lot on clouds and rain chances. Right
now, as I mentioned, I backed some of the rain chances lower, so I
would think a warmer pattern would be the result. The NBM still
tries to lower high temperatures for Friday, but if the drier
solution trend continues we may need to bump high temperatures
higher. Right now the forecast has high temperatures for Friday
through Sunday near or a little above 100 in the lowlands which is
in the 50% range of occurrence, but those values may need to be
trended a few degrees warmer, closer to the 75% or 90% values if
the drier solution plays out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW-BKN250. The winds will be generally light
to breezy (8 to 14 kts) with occasional gusts of up to 24 kts and
out from the between the west and west southwest through 02Z
Wednesday at most of the sites except at KELP. Gusty winds at KELP
will continue at least until 07Z Wednesday. The winds would
become less gusty thereafter. There will be no reduction in the
VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The winds today should be a little lower than we have seen the
last couple of afternoons, but min RH`s are still very low. On
Wednesday and Thursday, the heat will be on, with high
temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average. Min RH`s will
still be low with 5 to 10% reading in the lowlands and readings of
10 to 20% in area mountains. For Friday and into the weekend, we
will have a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Min RH`s will still be near 10% in the lowlands and range from 15
to 30% in area mountains. Any thunderstorms that do develop will
be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds and could
produce some dry lightning due to the lack of moisture near the
surface. Vent rates over the next couple of days will range from
very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  74 104  77 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            92  67  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               99  69 103  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               96  64 100  68 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               74  53  77  54 /   0   0  20  10
Truth or Consequences    96  69 100  71 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              88  61  93  66 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                   96  63 102  66 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                94  62 100  66 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       97  72 101  75 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                99  64 100  67 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock             99  65 104  69 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               91  67  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   99  69 104  71 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             96  66 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           96  74 101  76 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            96  62 100  66 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    98  64 102  66 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 96  69 101  71 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                95  66  99  70 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  87  59  87  58 /   0   0  30  10
Mescalero                85  56  88  58 /   0   0  20  10
Timberon                 83  56  86  57 /   0   0  20  10
Winston                  89  60  92  61 /   0  10  10  10
Hillsboro                94  67  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                95  61 100  63 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             90  58  94  62 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   91  60  97  63 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    96  59 102  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               91  62  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  91  64  95  66 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   94  61 100  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  94  63 100  67 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           92  61  99  66 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               87  61  94  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira