Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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855 FXUS64 KEPZ 242332 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 532 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Warm and very dry weather will continue across the Borderland for through this weekend and into much of next week. Saturday will see the strongest winds and extreme fire conditions; Sunday will be breezy but not as strong as Saturday. Winds after Sunday should be limited to just some typical afternoon breezes. On the flip side though, temperatures will climb as the winds diminish. By Tuesday and Wednesday, much of the lowlands will experience their first triple digit readings of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Deepening trough just crossing into California early this afternoon, with moderate sub-tropical jet ahead of it over the CWA. Some patches of high clouds will continue over our area in this flow tonight, otherwise no significant issues. Saturday however will see some issues, mainly in the name of critical to extreme fire weather conditions. Humidity will remain very low; meanwhile aforementioned upper trough will sweep across the area, reaching New Mexico around noon time and to eastern New Mexico by late afternoon. This is perfect timing for winds; combine this with relatively deep lee low over SE Colorado and attendant pressure gradient and we will see gusty winds. Thus, Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Saturday for all fire zones. Winds should remain just below advisory criteria. You have to look at 90th percentile and above of the NBM wind gusts to hit the criteria (50+ mph), so at this time Wind Advisory does not look to be needed. Finally, Sunday and beyond, the winds look to subside back down to the more typical afternoon breezes of 10-20 mph. The tradeoff, there always is one, is we begin to really heat up. Central American upper high gradually builds northward to Mexico and the southwestern US. By Tuesday, h85 temps support scattered areas of the lowlands reaching 100 degrees. El Paso record highs from Tuesday through Friday range from 102-104 degrees, so some records could fall. Even looking at the NBM 95th percentile, high temps still remain around 104, so a bit below dangerous category. Still people will have to take precautions as this is the first heat wave of the season. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with mainly SKC. The winds will be generally light with occasional gusts of up to 25 kts through 03Z. The winds will be out from the southwest and continue to be light through 14Z before becoming breezy to windy 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Fire conditions rise to critical to extreme Saturday as our winds increase with the already very low humidity and dry fuels. Thus, a Red Flag Warning will continue for Saturday for all fire zones. Winds to 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph will develop. Fortunately the remainder of the forecast period will settle down to more typical afternoon breezes. However temperatures will continue to climb, which will further dry out various fuels. So expect fire conditions to remain elevated through most of next week. Min RHs: Lowlands 4-8% through Wednesday. Mountains 8-15% through Wednesday. Vent rates very good to excellent through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 92 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 90 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 88 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 90 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 94 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 99 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 96 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 92 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 89 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 91 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 89 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 47 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 44 78 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 85 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 88 47 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 47 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 41 86 40 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 37 80 38 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 88 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 56 89 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 88 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira