295
FXUS64 KEPZ 051129
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
529 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Hot temperatures are expected for the rest of the workweek with
afternoon highs near or above 100 degrees in the lowlands.
Moisture increases into the weekend, bringing the chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Strong
downdraft winds are the main threat with this activity.
Temperatures cool to near normal early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The upper ridge to the west will creep into the region today,
allowing for more subsident flow and mainly dry conditions. A
weakness in the ridge in eastern NM will allow for some moisture
advection for eastern areas. This may be enough to spark a few
showers or storms in the Sacs during the afternoon. With large dew
point depressions and inverted-V soundings, gusty winds are the
main hazard. The activity dissipates this evening as we lose
diurnal heating. Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees warmer
than yesterday, reaching near Heat Advisory criteria along the
lower RGV. Light southerly winds of 5-10 mph are expected.

For Thursday, the upper-level high settles overhead, resulting in
the hottest day of this stretch. Temps have been consistent over
the past few days, right around 106 for KELP with potential for
108. No changes to the Heat Advisories in this forecast package.
All of the lowlands are forecast to approach or exceed 100 with
90s in places like Silver City. In terms of storm potential,
Thursday doesn`t look widespread or anything, but there may be
just enough surface moisture (Td in the 30s-low 40s) to trigger a
few cells over the mountains. Eastern areas will have the better
chance of activity from orographic lift and/or reaching the
convective temp. With dew point depressions near 60 degrees, any
storm that develops has the potential to produce strong
downdraft/dry microburst winds Thursday afternoon. Dry lightning
is another threat as the dry lower levels evaporate most if not
all rainfall that is produced.

This trend will continue through the weekend as enough moisture
remains and the upper high drifts to the east, creating a quasi-
monsoonal setup. PWs stay 25-50% above normal with the higher
terrain most likely to see daily afternoon storms. Gusty outflows
will slosh about in the lowlands into the evening each day,
possibly triggering new activity. DCAPE values approach 2000 J/kg,
so strong downdrafts remain a threat into early next week. Precip
totals are expected to be light due to the deep dry layer the rain
has to overcome to reach the surface.

As the high moves off to the east and weakens, temperatures cool
to near or even below average early next week. Friday`s temps look
very similar to Wednesday, but the uncertainty in cloud cover and
storm coverage on Friday keeps us from extending the Heat
Advisory another day. The model consensus for early next week is
for a cut-off low off the Baja to be swept up in the main flow on
Sunday, allowing the upper ridge to build in to our south.
Temperatures look to rebound into the middle of next week with
westerly flow clearing out most of the moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light winds
AOB 8kts persist mainly from S/W. Other than FEW-SCT250, mainly
clear skies expected at the terminals. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop this afternoon over the Sacramento Mtns,
dissipating by sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Through Thursday, elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are forecast. Moisture levels increase slightly for the
rest of the week, especially in eastern areas. For Wednesday,
conditions will be mostly quiet except for in the Sacramento
Mountains where there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Dry lightning and gusty and erratic winds are possible this
afternoon. The winds will be generally light otherwise from the
south and temperatures above normal. Wednesday overnight recovery
will be fair to good. For Thursday, there will be a better chance
of storms in the mountains as temperatures reach their hottest of
the period. For the rest of the period, there will be continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms especially in the mountains
each afternoon and evening. The winds will be light to breezy
while the temperatures gradually cool to near normal early next
week. Mostly elevated conditions are expected Friday onward.

The min RHs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be 5-12% across
most of the area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they
will be 15-25%. The ventilation rates will be good to very good
through Thursday, then very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  76 106  80 /   0   0  10  20
Sierra Blanca            96  68  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
Las Cruces              103  70 105  72 /   0   0  10  20
Alamogordo              100  67 102  72 /  10   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               76  55  78  57 /  20  10  20  10
Truth or Consequences    99  70 102  72 /   0  10  10  10
Silver City              94  65  96  67 /  10  10  20  20
Deming                  102  65 104  68 /   0  10  10  20
Lordsburg                99  66 102  69 /   0   0  20  20
West El Paso Metro      101  75 104  77 /   0   0  10  20
Dell City               100  67 102  69 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Hancock            103  68 105  72 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda               95  70  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                  103  70 106  74 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Teresa            100  68 103  72 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ          101  75 103  77 /   0   0  10  20
Jornada Range           100  65 103  68 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                   102  65 105  67 /   0   0  10  20
Columbus                101  70 104  72 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande                99  69 101  73 /  10   0  10  10
Mayhill                  86  58  90  61 /  30  10  30  10
Mescalero                88  57  90  60 /  20   0  20  10
Timberon                 86  56  88  58 /  20  10  20  10
Winston                  92  61  94  62 /  10  10  20  20
Hillsboro                97  68 100  69 /  10  10  20  20
Spaceport                99  63 102  66 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             94  61  95  62 /  10  10  20  20
Hurley                   96  63  99  64 /  10  10  10  20
Cliff                   102  63 105  64 /   0   0  20  10
Mule Creek               96  66  99  68 /   0   0  20  10
Faywood                  96  66  98  68 /  10  10  10  20
Animas                   99  65 102  68 /   0   0  20  20
Hachita                  99  66 102  69 /   0   0  20  20
Antelope Wells           98  65 102  69 /   0   0  20  20
Cloverdale               93  66  97  69 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson