648
FXUS64 KEPZ 101930
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Temperatures are expected to soar once again in the days ahead.
Triple digit heat will be a daily occurrence for the lowlands
with warmer than normal temps extending into the mountains as
well. A few spotty thunderstorms could still develop during the
afternoons over the Sacramento mountains, but most other areas
will remain dry. Fire weather concerns will increase across
western areas later in the week as winds pick up in that region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Despite plentiful sunshine this afternoon, most lowland areas
will manage to narrowly avoid the triple digit mark for a second
day in a row as an upper low meanders just to our north for one
last day. This upper feature will slowly shift eastward over the
next few days, allowing a rather strong subtropical ridge to
develop over the Borderland Wednesday through Friday. This will
result in widespread triple digit heat over the lowlands with 80s
and 90s over the mountains. In general temps will run some 10-15
degrees above seasonal norms for the Wednesday thru Friday time
frame. As a result, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for
most areas Wednesday thru Friday. Some areas will approach 110 by
Thursday, thus the potential for an Extreme Heat Warning will
exist later this week.

Meanwhile rainfall will be hard to come by with the exception of
the higher terrain across the east. We will continue to see a
sharp moisture gradient across the region the next several days
with dew points in the teens and 20`s out west and higher
dewpoints in the 40`s and 50`s across far eastern areas. In
between we will see the typical sloshing back and forth of the
moisture with moist air washing westward during the overnight
hours and then being chased back east once daytime mixing becomes
established.

Winds are not expected to be overly strong and gusty until much
later this week. By Friday and Saturday models show a weak trough
ejecting across the desert southwest, thus flattening the ridge
somewhat. At this point in time it appears that only a small
amount of cooling will accompany the trough passage, thus expect
temps to remain much above normal through the weekend and into
early next week. However the trough passage will bring stronger
winds to the western half of the region Friday and Saturday. These
winds combined with extremely dry conditions will likely result
in increased fire weather concerns later in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Developing
after 18Z...mainly over the mountains and east of El
Paso...isolated BKN050CB -TSRA until around 01Z. Gusty winds of
35-45 knots possible near storms along with 3-5SM BLDU with any
storm over the desert areas. Non-thunderstorm winds becoming west
7-10 knots this afternoon and turning to east/northeast 7-10
knots after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Elevated to near-critical fire conditions to continue into this
weekend as dry airmass continues despite brief increase in
dewpoints during the overnights. A few mountain thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoons, mainly over the Sacramentos.
There could be occasionally gusty winds associated with these
storms. Near record high temperatures will develop by Thursday
into the weekend. Will have to watch Friday as an upper level
trough passes across the area. Winds overall don`t look too
significant but winds over the Gila/Black Range will increase and
we could see RFW conditions develop over that zone.

Min RHs: Lowlands 6-12% through Saturday. Mountains-Gila 9-14%
through Saturday; Sacramentos 20-30% Tuesday decreasing to 10-20%
Wednesday through Saturday. Vent rates very good to excellent
through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72 103  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            63  96  67  99 /  10   0   0  10
Las Cruces               66 102  70 105 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               62  97  65 102 /  10  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               48  73  51  78 /  20  30  10  20
Truth or Consequences    65  98  70 102 /  10  10  10   0
Silver City              60  92  63  97 /  10  10   0  10
Deming                   62 100  65 104 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                62  99  64 103 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       70 100  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                62  99  65 101 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             64 102  67 106 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               63  93  67  97 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                   66 102  70 106 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             64  99  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           71  98  75 102 /  10   0   0  10
Jornada Range            60  98  65 103 /  10   0  10   0
Hatch                    60 100  64 104 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus                 65  99  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                63  97  69 101 /  20  10  10  10
Mayhill                  52  84  54  88 /  20  40  10  20
Mescalero                51  84  54  89 /  10  20  10  10
Timberon                 49  83  53  87 /  20  20  10  20
Winston                  53  89  57  94 /  10  20  10  10
Hillsboro                62  95  65  99 /  10  10  10  10
Spaceport                57  97  62 101 /  10  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             55  92  59  97 /  10  10  10  10
Hurley                   57  96  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    57 100  60 105 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               62  94  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  60  94  64  98 /  10  10   0   0
Animas                   60  99  65 104 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  61  98  65 103 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           62  99  65 103 /   0   0  10   0
Cloverdale               62  94  65  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Friday night for TXZ418>424.

NM...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Friday night for NMZ401-404>407-409>411-417-427>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...27-Laney