Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
889
FNUS74 KEPZ 181201
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for South Fork...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
601 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on June 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Near critical fire conditions expected again today with southwesterly
breezes this afternoon at 15 to 20 MPH, dry conditions with min
RH values 9 to 11 percent, and mostly clear skies. Winds calm in
the evening and overnight hours but shifts southeasterly late Wednesday
morning becoming windy with the strong easterly push of moisture that
evening and into the early morning hours Thursday. Thunderstorms return
by Wednesday afternoon and will continue on and off through the weekend.
Strong outflows from these storms will pose a risk of sudden wind shifts
and erratic fire behavior along active fire lines during the afternoon
and evening hours Wednesday. Thursday will pose a similar risk with
outflows.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Areas of smoke in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (74000 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(170000 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........4 4 2 2 2 5
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE AREAS AREAS AREAS
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............70 74 79 83 85 86
RH..............23 21 16 12 11 9
20 ft wind......SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 SW 12 SW 12 SW 13
20 ft wind gust.8 10 16 21 21 22
Mix hgt (ft)....1200 3000 6300 9200 10500 10500
Transport wind..W 12 W 12 SW 20 SW 20 SW 17 SW 17
Haines index....4 4 4 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10 48 108 176 170 170
Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR VYGD EXNT EXNT EXNT
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of smoke in
the late evening and overnight.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (109500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (13600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........10 10 10 14 14 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS
Weather type....NONE NONE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............84 76 70 67 63 60
RH..............10 13 16 19 22 26
20 ft wind......SW 10 SW 10 SW 7 SW 5 SW 5 S 3
20 ft wind gust.20 20 12 9 9 6
Mix hgt (ft)....8400 8400 1200 1200 1200 1200
Transport wind..SW 16 SW 16 SW 14 SW 14 W 9 W 9
Haines index....6 6 6 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..110 110 16 16 14 14
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 7 to 14 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......12300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 11 mph shifting to the south
around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (31600 knot-ft) increasing to very good
(136400 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........6 2 22 48
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 40 40
LAL.............1 1 4 4
Temp............58 77 85 83
RH..............32 20 17 25
20 FT wind......SE 3G6 SE 7G16 SE 13G21 SE 14G22
Mix hgt (ft)....4500 4500 12300 10800
Transport wind..SE 7 SE 7 S 11 S 18
Haines index....5 4 5 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 32 136 140
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Not as warm. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds
around 13 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around
70. Southeast winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Warmer. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...SLUSHER
Requested by...Errick Kimbrall
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416340.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov