816
FXUS64 KEWX 240038
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
738 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A discrete severe thunderstorm across the San Angelo area continues
to advance southeastward and is entering Mason County. This storm
could survive long enough to reach portions of Gillespie and Llano
counties. This storm probably starts to wane in intensity as it
approaches but hail and strong winds remains could remain possible
with this storm. It shouldn`t last beyond 03 UTC as convective
inhibition increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

This morning, a few thunderstorms passed over Llano, Burnet, and
Williamson Counties before moving east to northeast out of the area.
Storms continue early this afternoon to the north in the FWD CWA,
although some backbuilding and outflow boundaries could provide more
chances for a storm or two in similar areas to those of this
morning. There is a small chance a storm could become severe due to
large CAPE values and vertical shear, with large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado all possible. Any convection should be north or
east of South Central Texas by this evening. More chances for
thunderstorms are seen in a similar area tomorrow afternoon over the
Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor ahead of the dryline and
front to the north. These will also have the potential to be severe
with mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. Both today and
tomorrow, any strong storms could also bring heavy rain leading to
isolated flooding.

Clouds continue to break up this afternoon with highs varied based
on where clouds linger longest. Over the coastal plains I-35
corridor, Hill Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau,
highs will be mainly in the low to mid 90s by late afternoon.
Further west along the Rio Grande closer to the dryline, highs will
top out in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Heat index values up
to 108-111 degrees continue to warrant the Heat Advisory in place
generally along and south of US 57 and west of I-37 through 7 PM.

Low clouds redevelop overnight mainly over the eastern two thirds of
the area. Warm overnight lows are expected again from the low 70s to
around 80 degrees. Clouds look to mix out quicker tomorrow than
today, aiding in a bump in high temperatures for Friday. The dryline
will advance over counties along the Rio Grande during the afternoon
with clear skies expected in these areas. Highs will be hot behind
this feature, possibly reaching up to 106-108 degrees in a few
locations, with heat index values lower due to the drier dewpoints.
Ahead of this feature, hot temperatures and moderate humidity will
lead to high heat index values ranging from around 100 to 112
degrees. The axis of highest heat indices will be over portions of
the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains. Some of
these locations will warrant a Heat Advisory. With the current
advisory in place through this afternoon, will hold off on issuance
for now. Dangerous early season heat continues through this holiday
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place over Mexico through the
long term period, which will generally lead to a warming trend
through the Memorial Day Weekend with Heat Advisories and/or
Warnings likely. Dry conditions will also likely to prevail over the
weekend, though an isolated storm cannot be ruled out across
northern portions of the Hill Country Saturday afternoon/evening. At
this time, Sunday appears to be the warmest day for south-central
Texas, though each day through the weekend will have dangerous heat
for those spending prolonged periods outdoors and not taking the
proper precautions. Daily record MaxT`s and record warm MinT`s will
also likely be challenged or set each day across the area. Del Rio
specifically will likely have a couple of opportunities to set a new
all time MaxT record for the month of May as well, which currently
stands at 109F from earlier this month.

A welcomed drop in temperatures is expected Tuesday into Wednesday
of next week as a cold front works into the area. Temperatures will
still likely be above average, yet noticeably different from the
previous days. This front may also bring some isolated storm
potential as well late Monday through Wednesday as the boundary
lingers near the area. Temperatures may try to warm slightly through
the second half of next week, though a few disturbances riding over
the top of the upper ridge could bring some cloud cover and
continued isolated storm chances to help keep temperatures somewhat
at bay.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours with breezy
east-southeasterly winds at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and
KSSF) with gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range. The wind speeds
subside and low stratus with MVFR ceilings return to the I-35
terminals overnight into Friday morning. KDRT will continue with
light to moderate east-southeasterly winds overnight with some
scattered low clouds arriving near or after sunrise, where MVFR
conditions may temporarily develop. VFR conditions return to all
sites into and through Friday afternoon. Winds should not be as
strong through Friday afternoon as compared to this afternoon.
Directions will be out of the south-southeast to east-southeast.
Isolated convection may be possible near the KAUS terminal for
Friday afternoon/evening but confidence remains too low to enter
PROB30 group at this time. This will be reevaluated in future
TAF packages.

&&

.CLIMATE...
(RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

         THU        FRI        SAT        SUN       MON
        05/23      05/24      05/25      05/26     05/27
------------------------------------------------------------
AUS    99/2008    99/1955   100/2011    97/2018  100/2011
ATT   100/2008   104/1925   100/2011    99/2018  100/2011
SAT    99/2008*  101/1989*  103/1989   100/1989  100/2011
DRT   105/2000   109/2000   104/2011   106/2018  106/2018

* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  97  75  97 /   0  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  97  74  97 /   0  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  99  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  93  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 107  76 108 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  94  73  95 /  10  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76 102  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  74  97 /   0  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  95  77  95 /   0   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78 102  77 100 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...Brady