985
FXUS64 KEWX 311127
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Points

* Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms today and Saturday
* Large (possibly very large greater than >2 inch) hail and damaging
  winds the main threats
* A tornado or two is possible
* Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding possible

A cluster currently over West Central Texas will move southeast over
the Hill Country across northern portions of the I-35 corridor to US
77 overnight into early morning. Severe thunderstorms with large to
very large hail and strong damaging winds are possible. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 358 is in effect through 7 AM CDT. Locally heavy
rains can also be expected.

For today, the cluster will leave a surface boundary somewhere
across the area. The dryline will remain over western Texas. In
addition, upslope flow is expected over the Serranias del Burro west
of the Rio Grande. These items along with heating will provide
forcing for showers and thunderstorms. However, models do not agree
on timing or location. There are no mid level features to provide
forcing. As a result, will trend to the NBM POPs with the highest
POPs across eastern areas. Forecast soundings indicate a continued
potential for strong to severe storms with large to very large hail
and strong damaging wind gusts the main threats. SPC has a level 2
of 5 risk of severe storms. Locally heavy rains can also be
expected. WPC has a level 1 to 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rains.

There should be a lull in showers and thunderstorms tonight due to
lack of forcing after sunset. A rather humid, unstable airmass
persists on Saturday allowing for at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms with heating and possibly residual surface boundaries.
There remains a potential of strong to severe storms and locally
heavy rains. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be
expected today through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Low to medium rain/storm chances look to persist into Saturday night
pending another weak disturbance embedded in the west-northwesterly
flow aloft and local outflow/mesoscale features. Confidence as seen
the last few days remains very low and dependent on storm activity
from the previous day and if the atmosphere is able to recover into
a more unstable environment. Any storms that are able to develop may
again have the ability to become strong to severe and produce some
locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances begin to lessen from Sunday into early next week as the
upper level ridge over Mexico starts to strengthen and slowly nudge
northward with time. This looks to shift the storm track of those
weak embedded disturbances in the flow slightly more north and focus
most of the convection during these days from the central plains and
into portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth CWA. I will keep a very slim
area of low pops across our northeastern most counties both Sunday
and Monday if any activity and/or outflow is able to slim out of the
Dallas-Fort Worth region. The upper level ridge continues to advance
northward into the Desert Southwest and transitions towards more of
an Omega Block pattern as we move into mid to late week. While the
rain chances look to stay quite low through this stretch, this does
open up more of a northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the
ridge where we may have to monitor for any disturbance/outflow from
the central plains. Otherwise, the heat will intensify through next
week as the daytime highs are to climb back into the mid to upper
90s for many locations and in excess of 100 degrees for areas near
the Rio Grande. When factoring in those elevated dew points, the
heat indices are to climb into the 104 to 112 degree range and may
result in the return of some Heat Advisories across portions of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Have introduced TEMPOs -SHRA at KSAT/KSSF and maintained TSRA at
KAUS through 15Z. Otherwise, MVFR will lift to VFR by midday, then
return overnight. E to SE winds prevail, breezy at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  73  90  75 /  50  20  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  73  90  75 /  50  30  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  74  94  76 /  40  20  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            86  71  87  73 /  50  20  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  79 102  79 /  20  10  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  72  88  74 /  60  20  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             95  75  96  77 /  20  20  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  72  93  75 /  40  20  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  75  89  76 /  60  30  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  94  77 /  40  20  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           95  77  95  78 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...04