381
FXUS64 KEWX 131047
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
547 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The recent active weather pattern will largely come to an end today
as the subtropical ridge axis over northern Mexico into the desert
southwest begins to build into the region. We will add some low rain
chances to the coastal plains this afternoon as at least a few of
the hi-res models show some convection developing during peak
heating. We are also noting some weak cyclonic circulation in water
vapor imagery over western Texas. We will continue to monitor this
as it continues to move southward today. For now, we will not
mention any convection outside of the coastal plains, but it is
worth monitoring. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain at or
above normal, ranging from the lower 90s to near 103 degrees.
Overnight lows will range from near 70 to near 80 degrees as skies
remain mostly clear. We will keep the forecast dry across all areas
on Friday as highs inch upward a degree or two from what we are
forecasting today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave moving to the northeast over the Plains this weekend
will create a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge over Texas by
Sunday. A plume of tropical moisture initially spreads north to over
eastern parts of our area. The seabreeze will become active Sunday
and each day through at least mid week. Low chances of showers and
thunderstorms return to near the Coastal Plains on Sunday, then west
to the I-35 corridor on Monday and Tuesday. Models are increasing
the potential for development of a tropical system with NHC now
indicating a 40% chance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Whatever
develops, models have a consensus in taking the system into Mexico
as the Subtropical Ridge begins to re-strengthen over Texas. The
moisture plume shifts toward the west with rain chances spreading to
the Rio Grande on Wednesday into Thursday. Enhanced rainfall may
become possible near the Coastal Plains early in the week, then
across the southern parts of the Rio Grande Plains later in the
week. Seasonably hot temperatures and humid conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Low clouds continue to remain rather patchy this morning and based on
satellite trends, we have removed the TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at
AUS. We will keep the TEMPO groups for SAT and SSF through 14Z.
Otherwise, some convection is possible, with most of the activity
likely remaining near the coastal plains. We can`t completely rule
out a few light showers near I-35, but chances are too low to mention
in the forecast. Low cloud development for late tonight into Friday
morning does not appear too favorable given weak southeasterly flow
and we will not mention any MVFR cigs just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  76  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  74  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  74  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  81 105  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  74  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  75  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  75  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  76  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  99  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Platt