353
FXUS64 KEWX 110831
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
331 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An upper level low currently over the Texas Panhandle will move to
the southeast over Texas today, then open into a trough over eastern
Texas into Louisiana/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This
feature along with heating and any surface boundaries will generate
showers and thunderstorms with its passage. Clusters and supercells
are expected. The best timing will be this afternoon into evening.
Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability and shear. Damaging
winds are the main threat in the clusters with large hail the main
threat in the discrete cells. SPC has levels 1 to 2 out of 5 risk
for severe storms today with the higher risk over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. PWs up to 2 inches indicate a potential for
locally heavy rains. Minor flooding is the main threat, especially
for areas having slower moving storms or those that move over areas
that have received heavier rains recently. WPC has a level 1 out of
4 risk for excessive rainfall for all areas today and eastern areas
on Wednesday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be
expected with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

As the remnants of an upper trough continue to move south of the
region, some weak upper disturbances in the northerly flow aloft and
daytime heating may allow for some isolated convection to linger
across the coastal plains Wednesday. We will keep a low chance (20%)
in the forecast for the mentioned region during the evening, then go
with a dry forecast into early Thursday morning.

The mid and upper level subtropical ridge axis remains the dominant
weather feature across the region through the remainder of this week.
We expect dry weather along with a slow warming trend across south
central Texas, with daytime highs in the lower 90s to near 100
degrees and overnight lows generally in the 70s. As we head into
early next week, the medium range models show the subtropical high
splits, with one center over the southeastern U.S. and another over
northwestern Mexico. The low-level thermal ridge looks to remain
fairly stout, so our temperatures are likely to trend upward a degree
or two. With a weakness in mid and upper level heights developing
over the northwestern Gulf into south Texas, we will keep some low
rain chances in the forecast for areas generally along and east of
the Interstate 35 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Tuesday evening.
There are low PROBs for SHRA/TSRA with restrictions to CIGs and/or
VSBYs. Will leave mention out for now as there is now uncertainty on
locations and movement. However, expect mention in later forecasts
for at least one or more sites based on radar and/or model trends.
MVFR CIGs return later Tuesday night. Light, less than 10 KTs, winds
prevail, except strong wind gusts are possible in/near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  73  91  73 /  40  30  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  73  89  71 /  30  30  30   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  74  92  73 /  30  30  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            89  71  87  71 /  50  40  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  80 100  81 /  20  20  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  72  88  71 /  40  40  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  74  93  74 /  20  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  89  72 /  30  30  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  73  88  73 /  20  20  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  76  92  75 /  20  30  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  94  76 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...04