Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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841 FXUS64 KEWX 070728 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 228 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Clear skies are in control for the most part across South-Central Texas overnight. There is a small group of mid to upper level clouds moving across Val Verde and Edwards counties, but that is it. By day break, some models suggest for low clouds to develop along the Rio Grande and then dissipate around mid Friday morning. By the time the midday or noon period comes around, expect mostly sunny to sunny skies. High temperatures are likely to range from the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains with upper 90s and up to 103 degrees along the Rio Grande. Heat index values range from the 100 to 104 for the I-35 corridor and coastal plains to 100 to 108 along the Rio Grande. No rain expected. Some clouds return across the local area on Saturday morning and then dissipate by late morning as mixing takes place. Similar to Friday`s high temperatures, Saturday` highs stay in the 90s for most locations and up to 102 degrees along the I-35 corridor. A few of the hires models develop a few storms over the northeast part of Mexico but they stay over there with no impact to any close locations along the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The above normal heat continues across south central Texas through the remainder of the weekend with the subtropical high being the dominant weather feature. Highs will range from the lower 90s to near 104 degrees, with the warmest readings out west along the Rio Grande. A continuation of southerly flow in the low-levels will also keep overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees. A temporary weakening of the above mentioned subtropical high will take place late Sunday into Monday as the remnants of an upper low approach from the west. This will provide a low chance for showers and storms across the Hill Country into portions of the I-35 corridor Sunday evening into Monday morning. Low rain chances spread a little farther south Monday afternoon as daytime heating is realized. There remains considerable model differences with regard to the strength of a cold front on Monday. The GFS continues to be the outlier in showing a stronger front and cooler temperatures compared to the ECMWF and Canadian operational models. There is some support we will see a wind shift and perhaps some slightly cooler temperatures Monday and perhaps into Tuesday. However, will not trend the forecast as cool as the GFS just yet, but will show an east to northeasterly wind shift Monday into Tuesday. We will continue to monitor the medium range guidance and gladly lower temperatures if models trend toward the cooler solution. Temperatures look to trend upward as we head into the mid to late week portion of next week as the subtropical high builds to our west. The low-level thermal ridge will quickly amplify with highs trending some 5 to 10 degrees above normal. We will continue with a dry forecast, but will keep an eye on the northwest to northerly flow aloft for possible overnight MCS pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for KAUS, KSAT and KSSF through the forecast period. A light and variable and at times easterly wind flow is forecast to dominate overnight through Friday morning. Low clouds are forecast to develop overnight across the Rio Grande and affect KDRT by day break through the middle of the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KDRT on Friday afternoon and evening. Wind speeds pick up (8 to 12 knots and wind gusts up to 20 knots) especially across the Rio Grande mid to late afternoon into the evening as a surface trough moves across west Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 79 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 100 71 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 101 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...17