843
FXUS62 KFFC 040815
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024



...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms once again persisted well into the
night tonight. Thunderstorm activity has either weakened or moved
out of the area as of this writing, but some showers linger E of
Macon and across N GA.

Upstream, an MCS is presently moving across E MS into W AL. High
resolution model guidance weakens convection associated with this
feature as it continues to head E this morning. However,
instability and solar insolation will allow storms to reform with
this feature and lingering outflow boundaries as we head into the
afternoon. Mid-level dry air has exited the area, and precipitable
water values are progged to be around 1.7 inches today. As a
result, expect greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms
today, with 60-70% PoPs across much of the area (mostly during the
afternoon and evening). Although shear values will be fairly low,
it appears there will be a slight uptick during the afternoon as
mid-level flow increases a bit. This may lead to a few more strong
storms, but widespread severe wx is not anticipated. The greatest
threats from storms will be gusty winds and locally heavy rains.
High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s across the NE
mountains to near 90 SE of Macon.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely linger well into the
evening again Tuesday night, especially over the E half of the
area. Another MCS is progged to move into AL during the evening,
but convection associated with this feature is forecast to weaken
substantially before entering GA. Low temperatures Wednesday
morning are forecast to range from the mid to upper 60s in most
locales.

An upper shortwave is forecast to approach the area from the NW
during the day Wed. This will lead to more showers and
thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage generally along and N of
the I-20 corridor. High temperatures will be similar to Monday`s
highs. /SEC


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Ensemble guidance is in agreement that a weak shortwave trough
will traverse the Lower MS Valley and OH/TN Valley over the course
of Wednesday night and Thursday. This source of lift/ascent plus
progged 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and PWAT ~1.5" or greater will
support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and
virtually no shear mean that storms will likely be slow-movers,
bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall, nuisance
flooding, and localized rises on rivers, creeks, and streams. The
potential for widespread severe weather remains low given the
absence of organizational kinematics. That said, as is often the
case in the warm months, colliding outflow boundaries and/or
perturbations associated with the shortwave could support a few
strong/quasi-organized storms with torrential downpours, localized
gusty/damaging winds, small hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning. Appropriately, SPC has the entire CWA outlooked in a
General Thunder risk.

In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave, flow aloft will
become northwesterly on Thursday night as an expansive ridge
develops over the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Something of a
cold front (more accurately described as a "dry" front) will push
through the CWA Thursday night into Friday as high pressure driven
by the ridge nudges in from the west. Northwest flow aloft will
prevail through the weekend into Monday as the western half or so
of the CONUS remains under the ridge. The long-range ensemble
guidance depicts increasing PWAT on Sunday and Monday as moisture
pools across the Southeast. As a result, there are slight chance
to chance PoPs across the forecast area both days. May need to
keep an eye on the potential for "ridge-rider" MCSs diving
southward within the northwest flow.

Generally speaking, high temps and low temps will be within +/- 5
degrees of climatology through the long-term period. Highs will
be in the mid-80s to lower 90s, and lows will be in the lower 60s
to lower 70s (outside of the mountains). The exception will be
Saturday morning lows, which will be in the mid-50s to upper 50s
for portions of north Georgia.

Martin


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The threat of low cigs around daybreak this morning has lessened,
although IFR cigs remain possible N and W of the Atlanta metro
area and around AHN. There are better chances for thunderstorms
today, particularly at northern terminals (Atlanta metro and AHN).
Mid-level dry air is expected to exit the area, with fairly moist
profiles today. A couple of weak shortwaves are forecast to move
across the area during the afternoon and evening hour, possibly
organizing convection into broken N/S oriented lines. MVFR cigs
and vsbys are possible in showers and storms. Winds are expected
to be light outside of storms. Wind directions at ATL will be
mostly out of the SSW during the day, possibly shifting to SSE
during the evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on morning low cigs (or lack thereof) and timing of afternoon
and evening convection, high on all other elements.

SEC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  66  86  68 /  70  60  70  70
Atlanta         85  69  87  71 /  80  50  60  70
Blairsville     80  64  79  64 /  80  60  90  80
Cartersville    85  67  87  68 /  80  60  70  80
Columbus        89  70  91  72 /  70  30  40  50
Gainesville     84  67  84  70 /  80  60  80  70
Macon           89  69  90  71 /  80  40  50  40
Rome            85  68  87  69 /  80  60  80  80
Peachtree City  85  67  89  69 /  80  40  50  60
Vidalia         91  69  91  72 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SEC