838
FXUS63 KFGF 282338
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of rain will move from west to east across the FA
  Thursday into Thursday night, although anticipated rainfall
  amounts look a little lower now

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Slowly but surely, the cloud deck over the Red River Valley is
starting to thin out. Tonight, expect clear conditions. Forecast
remains on track.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The last 700/500mb shortwave is rotating southward through
Minnesota this afternoon, with scattered showers across most of
the state (mostly east of this FA). Ridging builds in behind
this wave for tonight through Wednesday night. This is followed
by a parade of short waves again, with the next one Thursday
into Thursday night.

The band of clouds teetering between MVFR/VFR this afternoon
remains pretty thick along and north of Interstate 94. Think
this will remain thick into the late afternoon/early evening,
while the edges will begin to thin. Not sure how fast or if
these thicker clouds will decrease this evening. Because of this
lingering cloud cover and the fact that dewpoints are still in
the mid 40s, don`t feel any spot will see frost tonight. There
may be some cumulus development again Wednesday afternoon, but
nothing like today. This will allow temperatures to return to
more normal late May highs.

Have been watching the evolution of the next wave for Thursday
into Thursday night for a number of days now. It continues to
look like a line of showers, with possibly some embedded
thunder, moving from west to east across the FA. Any stronger
convection is not expected, which will tend to limit
precipitation amounts to the lower end. There is also nothing
immediately behind it, so once it moves through that is it. For
those reasons, confidence is increasing that precipitation
amounts will be on the lower side. The NBM today shows about a
60 percent probability for amounts greater than 0.25 inches
along the Canadian border to about an 80 percent probability
along the South Dakota border. Probabilities for amounts greater
than 0.50 inches have lowered quite a bit, ranging from 15
percent along the Canadian border to 40 percent along the South
Dakota border. After this rolls through, zonal flow continues,
with a parade of waves anticipated again. Other waves
(with associated precipitation chances) are possible Friday
night/Saturday morning, Sunday/Sunday night, and Tuesday. Since
these additional waves are still so far off, confidence in
saying much more at that at this point is difficult.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Conditions should lift from MVFR to fully VFR across all TAF
sites this evening. Winds will become light and variable early
this evening, before shifting to more easterly/southeasterly
into Wednesday. Skies will remain clear until Wednesday
evening/Thursday morning when rain approaches from the west.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...AH