231
FXUS63 KFGF 101742
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible in parts of northeast North Dakota
  and far northwest Minnesota late thursday afternoon and night,
  with a risk level of 1 out of 5.

- Severe storms possible parts of northwest and west central
  Minnesota Friday afternoon, with a risk level 1 out of 5.

- Heat risk rises into moderate range this afternoon the heat
  indices mid to upper 90s within the Red River valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Elevated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along and
north of Highway 2, and are not handled very well at all by the
CAMs. Very subtle shortwaves and warm air advection will
continue to bring elevated convection into the early afternoon,
but it remains to be seen if we get anything rooted in the
boundary layer and bringing severe impacts. Further south, think
we should remain fairly capped although a few of the runs such
as the high resolution Canadian break out some storms west of
Fargo. Will continue to monitor satellite and radar trends and
go off them as models currently not doing to great.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Still seeing showers and a few thunderstorms across northwestern
MN and the northern Red River Valley. In addition, some cumulus
continues to develop in the Devils Lake Basin. Adjusted POPs a
bit further up across the area along and north of Highway 2, and
then should see a little bit of a break before additional storms
develop this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 712 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Few remaining high based showers in Otter Tail and Wadena
counties and a few in the far northern RRV. Updated pops for
this as earlier fcst had no pops yet in the far north valley or
far northwest MN. Otherwise scattering of mid clouds and some
mid level CU with a few spotty showers across central ND. Latest
HRRR and RRFS dont have much going on thru 03z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Continued high uncertainty in regards to convective trends
today into tonight and Friday. All deals with position of a weak
front and timing it as it moves southeast thru the area. And if
this front can break a cap of warmer 850-700 mb air that will b
in place thru Thursday evening. System moves east Friday as
upper trough moves through but this trough may aid in developing
a few severe storms in northeast into central and southern
Minnesota Friday afternoon, with SPC marginal risk for severe
in our far east and southeast fcst area. Weekend mainly dry,
after any early showers Saturday around Lake of the Woods as the
upper wave departs. Next system with chance for
showers/t-storms late Monday into Tuesday.

...Severe storm potential for late today and night...

Another very uncertain outlook in regards to convection
potential today and location, timing, intensity. SPC has really
cut back on severe messaging and now has roughly the NW 1/2
fcst area in level 1 out of 5 risk. Issue is location of weak
sfc boundary and airmass ahead of it. Sfc boundary will remain
to our north and west thru 00z Fri...with location from HRRR
looking like near south end of Lake Winnipeg to Winnipeg region
into central ND. Airmass ahead of covering our area is
generally capped, though weakly, with 700 mb temps 11C range
along with 850 mb thermal ridge into the RRV. Cannot rule out of
course some convection in our northwest fcst area closer to any
boundary in the aftn. Not worthy for more than a 20 or 30 pop
far north valley southwest toward Jamestown or Bismarck. Best
chances for surface based convection will probably be in
southern Manitoba particularly around south end of Lake Winnipeg
into Winnipeg area as looks like an area of maximized sfc CAPE
and enough cooling at 700 mb temps by 00z (+8C) to generate
potential storms. Sfc boundary likely to move southeast thru
most areas overnight tonight and be roughly Baudette to Wahpeton
Friday morning. Highly uncertain if convection can continue
near the sfc boundary into the night. Mixed signals on CAMs, but
most do not.

...Severe storm potential Friday afternoon...

Depending on where front it Friday afternoon, enough instability
(over 2500 j/kg) near it and with lower 700 mb temps as the 500
mb short wave moves into S Manitoba in the aftn, storms may have
an easier time developing. 0-6 km shear remains rather
weak...but a few severe storms would I think be possible along
the boundary as storms form. Now boundary may be farther east
out of the area or in our far southeast fcst area in the aftn.
That remains to be seen.


...Heat today...

Temps will reach upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices about as
fcst previously in the upper 80s to upper 90s...highest in the
valley. Local heat indices using dew points from AWOS`s near
crops will be higher. Wet bulb globe temps forecast to be in the
low 80s in the RRV and E ND.

Heat indices forecast do not meet advisory criteria so no
headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VCTS at KGFK and will be starting shortly at KTVF. Although
ceilings will remain VFR there could be some brief heavy
downpours to reduce visibility to 1 to 2 miles. Some showers
also at KDVL but think the convection will remain north of the
further east and south airports. Convective activity will taper
off before 03Z, there could be additional storms later on but
at this point mostly near the Canadian border and not near the
airports. Winds will shift from a southeasterly direction with
gusts to around 20 kts to the northeast, then northwest. Some
models bring in MVFR or even IFR ceilings by tomorrow morning
but don`t really trust that solution. Have KBJI going down to
MVFR but kept the rest VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR