Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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046 FXUS65 KFGZ 221737 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1037 AM MST Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of gusty southwest winds will continue through the week. && .UPDATE...Satellite imagery shows clear skies across northern Arizona this morning. Quiet weather remains on tap for today, with high temperatures ranging from the low-70s to upper-80s across the majority of northern Arizona`s High Country. No forecast updates are anticipated this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION /427 AM MST/...Today...Zonal flow remains in place over Arizona today, keeping temperatures about the same as yesterday, maybe just a degree or two warmer. Dry and breezy conditions also remain, with afternoon breezes around 20-30 mph. Thursday through Saturday...A passing shortwave to the north on Thursday will lead to an uptick of southwesterly winds during the afternoon. Another trough looks to pass a bit closer to Arizona on Friday and Saturday, with peak gusts looking to be in the 35-45 mph range along and downwind of the terrain. While the winds will be strong enough to support critical fire weather, moisture looks to increase just enough to make RH less supportive and more marginal. Thus, conditions look to mainly be near-critical and largely only across the lower elevations. Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure makes a return for the second- half of the weekend, brining with it a return of lighter winds and continued dry conditions. Warm temperatures ensue as well, with afternoon highs by the start of next week likely near normal to even above normal by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 22/18Z through Thursday 23/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions except for local reduced visibility from smoke due to prescribed burns. Southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts until around 02Z then becoming light. Southwest winds will develop again after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/18Z through Saturday 25/18Z...VFR conditions will persist but with periods of local reduced visibility in smoke due to prescribed burns. Expect southwest winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon with lighter winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Look for dry conditions with mild temperatures. Expect southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting near 25 mph today, becoming 10-20 mph gusting near 35 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between 8-18% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling temperatures through Saturday. Southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% expected each afternoon. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the Little Colorado River Valley on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/Humphreys AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff