155
FXUS65 KFGZ 211608
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
908 AM MST Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry, breezy, and mild weather through the
rest of the week with near normal temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and westerly
breezes are in store for Arizona today. The ignition of a few
prescribed fires later may produce areas of smoke and haze from
Williams to Flagstaff, so don`t be surprised if air quality
deteriorates this afternoon and evening. The current forecast is
on track and only minor updates were made to the sky cover grids.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...A dry (at least for Arizona)
longwave troughing pattern will remain over the western states
into the coming weekend.

For Today and Wednesday...Surface pressure gradients relax some
compared to Monday for more typical afternoon breezes from the
west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph locally gusting to near 30 mph.
There will be a bit of haze and smoke here and there across our
area due to various wildfires and prescribed burning. Otherwise,
look for mainly clear skies with just a few clouds at times near
the Arizona/Utah border. Daytime temperatures will warm some
today, especially over higher elevation locations, to just below
seasonal averages then remain steady on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...A pair of dry shortwave troughs whip
through the longwave pattern over the west. The result for
northern Arizona will be stronger surface pressure gradients. Look
for afternoon winds to increase becoming southwest at 15 to 25
mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph. More windy than breezy for most of
us in northern Arizona. The strongest of these winds will be on
Thursday and Friday but could linger into Saturday over eastern
portions of the state. Otherwise, mainly clear skies will
continue with perhaps a few degrees of cooling to daytime
temperature with the passage of those shortwave troughs.

From Sunday into early next week...A more persistent high pressure
system than we have seen in a while could develop over the
southwest for a distinct warmup. A little far out to have much
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 21/12Z through Wednesday 22/12Z...Occasional
MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU,
otherwise VFR. Winds W/SW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts
before 02Z, then becoming light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/12Z through Friday 24/12Z...Occasional
MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU,
otherwise VFR. Winds SW 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry conditions with mild
temperatures. West/southwest winds 10-20 mph, becoming southwest on
Wednesday. Afternoon minimum RH values 8-18%.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph during the
afternoon on Thursday and Friday, with lighter winds returning by
Saturday. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff