Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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435 FXUS65 KFGZ 080910 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 210 AM MST Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week, with near/above afternoon highs returning over the weekend. Typical spring-like breezy will remain through the forecast period, with slight chances for precipitation across some areas Friday through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...A zonal flow will be present aloft thanks to a elongated low remaining over the Northern Plains. This pattern will slowly increase our temperatures through the end of the week, but the majority of our CWA will have afternoon highs staying a few degrees below-normal for this time of year. Winds will revert to seasonal breezes for the next few days too. Model guidance (ECMWF, GFS, NAM) is slowly beginning to agree on a closed low forming off the backside of this elongated low by Friday. Although impacts are currently forecast to be minimal with this set-up, there will be an increase in moisture over Arizona. There is higher confidence that this moisture will present itself as cloud cover, but slight precipitation chances are not out of the question. If showers do become more likely, best chances appear to be along our Utah and New Mexico border. Wind speeds are forecast to increase, but look to remain well below any advisory thresholds. By the weekend, a ridge is expected to form on-top of this incoming closed low, creating a Rex Block pattern. This synoptic pattern will assist with increasing temperatures through the beginning of next week, where daytime highs should return to above-normal. There is still uncertainty with how these synoptic patterns will ultimately shake out, so check back for updates. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds W-SW5-15g20kts through 08Z, then decreasing to less than 10Kts overnight. Some NE sfc winds overnight to 10 kts SW of higher terrain. Sfc winds W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z Wednesday and decreasing to less than 10kts AFT 02Z Thursday, NE drainage winds redeveloping by 04Z Thursday. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds VRB 5-15kts in the overnight and morning hours each day, then W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z each day. Areas just SW of higher terrain may see NE drainage winds to 15kts each night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Cool but dry conditions expected through Thursday. Southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Friday through Sunday...Gradually warming temperatures, becoming slightly above normal by the weekend. Afternoon southwest winds 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph each day. Winds become more westerly on Sunday. Light and variable winds at night, with some easterly drainage winds through mid-morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, mainly across northern and eastern zones. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff