976
FXUS65 KFGZ 150413
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
913 PM MST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A brief warming trend will take place between today
and tomorrow, along with isolated showers/thunderstorms near NE AZ
this afternoon/evening. A dry, long-wave trough will bring cooler
temperatures and gusty winds Sunday through the beginning of next
week. Warm and calmer conditions look to return by mid to late
week.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies and light winds will be the story for
tonight across the High Country as a weak ridge starts to push
into the area. Areas around Cordes Lakes may see some smoke settle
in through the night due to a nearby wildfire. The smoke may
continue to linger until the inversion breaks and the winds start
to pick up in the morning.

Forecast looks to be on track and only minor adjustments to the
grids were needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 PM MST/...A quick moving disturbance brought isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today, primarily in
central/northern Apache/Navajo Counties. Hi- res guidance
continues to indicate convective activity towards the Four
Corners through 5 PM MST this evening.

A brief warm- up will take place on Saturday, as a weak ridge
settles over the region, prior to a long-wave trough pushing down
from the Pacific Northwest. This low-pressure system will bring
gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and mostly dry conditions
starting Sunday. Wind gusts are shaping up to be 30-40 mph Sunday
and Monday afternoon, but peak wind gusts will be on Monday.
Currently, Sunday looks to hold widespread, single-digit relative
humidity values that slightly climb to low-mid teens on Monday.
With the drier pattern and strong winds, near-critical to critical
fire weather concerns are possible both days. No products have
been issued at this time, but stayed tuned for updates.

Wednesday Onward...The previously mentioned trough will gradually
weaken through the end of the week and a subtropical high will
begin to build up over our area. As a result, temperatures will
increase through the end of the week and winds will become
lighter. Look for daytime highs 2-10 degree above normal Thursday
and Friday. It looks like enough moisture will funnel in across
eastern Arizona toward the end of next week, bringing our
precipitation chances between 10-20% for our AZ/NM border. There
is still time to hash out all those details, so check back later.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 15/00Z through Sunday 16/00Z...VFR through
the period. Variable winds gusting to 20kts until 02Z then
becoming light. Southwest winds developing after 16Z and
increasing through around 20Z...with gust to near 25kts in the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/00Z through Tuesday 18/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Hot and dry. Southwest winds
10 to 20 mph on Saturday, increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts from
30 to 35 mph on Sunday. Pockets of near-critical fire weather
conditions possible Sunday afternoon over the central/northwestern
zones. Some weak northerly flow may persist Saturday morning over
southern Apache County.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry, temperatures cooling to around or
just under seasonal normals. Windy for Monday and Tuesday, with
southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Areas of
near-critical fire weather conditions possible Monday afternoon.
Winds decrease by Wednesday, becoming west through southwest at 10

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Konieczny
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff