129
FXUS65 KFGZ 141730
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1030 AM MST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across Arizona today will
bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across
northeastern Arizona. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return
this weekend, with a slight cooling trend early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Northern Navajo and Apache Counties are currently
seeing isolated showers/thunderstorms. Northeastern Arizona is
expected to be the hot-spot for convective activity today, but
should gradually fade through the afternoon. Outside of
showers/storms, look for mostly dry conditions, warm temperatures,
and winds generally 10 mph or less.

Afternoon highs will quickly warm tomorrow, followed by a cooling
trend Sunday through the beginning of next week. The low-pressure
system that is expected to drop our daytime highs will also bring
gusty winds. Strong winds mixed with relative humidities in the
single digits- teens will likely create near critical to critical
fire weather concerns Sunday and Monday.

The previous forecast package/discussion remains on track, so no
updates were made. Read below for more details...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /455 AM MST/...An area of low pressure is centered
over the lower Colorado River Valley early this morning. Out ahead
of the low, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been
moving through Navajo and Apache counties overnight. Radar estimates
and a couple of observations show only light rain mainly less than
0.10" has fallen in these areas. Closer to the core of the low, a
few more robust convective cells have developed over Yavapai county.
The low will gradually track northeastward across the state today,
continuing to bring isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. Given the ongoing activity and support of some CAPE
in the hi-resolution models, thunder will be possible with any
convective development this morning and afternoon. The best coverage
of convective activity is expected to be across northeastern Arizona
through the day. Light rainfall is expected with only a lucky few
actually seeing measurable amounts. Temperatures today will be
similar to yesterday for much of the area, except eastern Arizona
where appreciable cloud cover and shower activity will keep them
about 5 degrees cooler.

The low heads east by this evening which will quickly diminish any
shower chances and lead to clearing skies. A drier and breezy
weather pattern takes hold over the weekend and into next week as
persisting troughing develops over the northwestern U.S. After a
quick warm up on Saturday, anomalously low heights for this time
of year will keep temperatures near to below average through the
middle of next week. The bad news is that the trough will lead to
increasing wind speeds from Saturday into early next week, which
could lead to some areas of critical fire weather by Sunday/Monday.

By the middle of next week, subtropical high pressure begins to
build back into the region with rising heights leading to warming
temperatures. In addition, models are indicating some moisture
from New Mexico might spread westward into Arizona bringing
another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the White
Mountains by Thursday, spreading westward across much of the area
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 14/18Z through Saturday 15/18Z...SCT -TSRA/SHRA
northeast of a KFLG-KGCN line, but especially N of KRQE. Convective
activity will end by 22Z-24Z. Otherwise, VFR through the period. Sfc
winds VRB5-15kts through 19Z-20Z, then W-NW5-15kts, then VRB again
AFT 03Z Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/18Z through Monday 17/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, primarily over northeastern Coconino County and
northern Navajo and Apache counties should dissipate through the
afternoon. Otherwise, dry and warm, especially on Saturday. Daytime
winds variable 5 to 15 mph today, southwesterly 10 to 20 mph, with
gusts to 25 mph, on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly cooler, but still very dry with
minimum RH values in the single digits to mid-teens each afternoon.
Breezy SW winds over the weekend strengthen, becoming windy by
Monday, causing near-critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/MCT
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson/Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff