Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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472 FXUS65 KFGZ 141155 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 455 AM MST Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across Arizona today will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across northeastern Arizona. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return this weekend, with a slight cooling trend early next week. && .DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure is centered over the lower Colorado River Valley early this morning. Out ahead of the low, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been moving through Navajo and Apache counties overnight. Radar estimates and a couple of observations show only light rain mainly less than 0.10" has fallen in these areas. Closer to the core of the low, a few more robust convective cells have developed over Yavapai county. The low will gradually track northeastward across the state today, continuing to bring isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Given the ongoing activity and support of some CAPE in the hi-resolution models, thunder will be possible with any convective development this morning and afternoon. The best coverage of convective activity is expected to be across northeastern Arizona through the day. Light rainfall is expected with only a lucky few actually seeing measurable amounts. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday for much of the area, except eastern Arizona where appreciable cloud cover and shower activity will keep them about 5 degrees cooler. The low heads east by this evening which will quickly diminish any shower chances and lead to clearing skies. A drier and breezy weather pattern takes hold over the weekend and into next week as persisting troughing develops over the northwestern U.S. After a quick warm up on Saturday, anomalously low heights for this time of year will keep temperatures near to below average through the middle of next week. The bad news is that the trough will lead to increasing wind speeds from Saturday into early next week, which could lead to some areas of critical fire weather by Sunday/Monday. By the middle of next week, subtropical high pressure begins to build back into the region with rising heights leading to warming temperatures. In addition, models are indicating some moisture from New Mexico might spread westward into Arizona bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the White Mountains by Thursday, spreading westward across much of the area by Friday. && .AVIATION...Friday 14/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...VFR expected during TAF period. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/TS will be possible along and north of a KGCN-KFLG-KINW-KJTC line through 00Z. Rain chances gradually shift eastward throughout the day. Light, variable winds this morning will become W-NW at 5-15 kts after 18Z. Gusty, erratic winds will be possible near storms and downbursts. OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/12Z through Monday 17/12Z...VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies will persist. Breezy SW winds, strengthening through the weekend into the start of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Scattered light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning will continue throughout the day, keeping temperatures mild. Rain chances shift eastward, mainly impacting northeast Arizona from the Little Colorado River Valley northward. Gusty, erratic winds are expected near storms with dry lightning possible. Away from storms, W-NW winds 5-15 mph today, increasing out of the SW at 10-20 mph Saturday. Hot, dry conditions return Saturday with afternoon RH values of 5-15%. Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly cooler, but still very dry with minimum RH values in the single digits to mid-teens each afternoon. Breezy SW winds over the weekend strengthen, becoming windy by Monday, creating near-critical fire weather conditions. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...Mazon FIRE WEATHER...Mazon For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff