Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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002 FXUS65 KFGZ 292131 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 231 PM MST Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm conditions along with reoccurring afternoon breezes out of the west to southwest each day into next week. Today and this weekend will see slightly stronger gusts compared to Thursday and Friday. Regardless, the uptick in wind will have minimal impacts. && .DISCUSSION...A pattern of broad high pressure remains in place despite the efforts of a trough well to our north. This trough is limiting the amplitude of the upper-level ridge and is tightening pressure gradients just enough to increase west to southwest winds today. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph continue this afternoon with peak gusts near to just above 30 mph. Once the trough has progressed eastward tomorrow, a return of zonal flow is expected. Dry, mostly sunny, and warm conditions persist with afternoon temperatures a few to 5 degrees above average the next several days. Southwest winds will be 5 to 15 mph with some typical afternoon breezes. The Weekend Onward...Models show synoptic competition returning between a weak ridge with its axis near to just east of Arizona and a weak trough to our west. This will help elevate winds marginally Saturday and Sunday. Southwest winds will gust in the 15 to 25 mph range with stronger gusts for a few localized areas. Once again, with weak gradients and little fluctuation in pressure heights, you won`t feel a whole lot of change in the weather outside subtle changes in the wind. Models do project a stronger ridge building with higher heights and better amplitude next week, which could lead to a climb in temperatures towards the middle of next week. Additionally, a feeble low to our west could push some moisture into the area. However, the most likely result being increased cloudiness. More to follow as models work to get a better handle on our future pattern. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 29/18Z through Thursday 30/18Z...VFR conditions will persist. Look for southwest winds at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts diminishing to less than 10 kts after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 30/18Z through Saturday 01/18Z...VFR conditions will continue with light afternoon southwest winds generally less than 15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry and warm weather will continue with southwest winds at 5-15 mph both days. Afternoon RH values of 5-15% with overnight recoveries of 25-45%. Saturday through Monday...Look for warm and dry weather. Southwest winds each day at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Afternoon RH values of 5-15% with overnight recovery ranging from 20-40%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Mazon AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff