138
FXUS65 KFGZ 102204
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
304 PM MST Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures are expected on Saturday with
isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along
and north of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday,
with slight chances for a few showers and storms each afternoon
through Wednesday. Anticipate typical afternoon breezes through
the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Taking a look out the window this afternoon, virga
showers can be seen north of the office here in Bellemont with
light echoes popping up on radar from here to the Kaibab Plateau.
Expect this activity to persist through this evening with greatest
chances for precipitation over the Kaibab. The winds continue
their shift from the southeast to the south-southwest this
afternoon with gusts as high as 25 mph in some spots. The breezy
winds should continue into this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight. With this slight shift in wind direction,
smoke from the ongoing prescribed burns by Happy Jack will likely
impact folks who reside on the east side of Flagstaff to Winslow
for this evening and into the overnight hours as smoke settles. It
is possible for some smoke to creep into Oak Creek Canyon and the
Verde Valley again, however, easterly winds overnight should not
be as strong as last night`s.

A weak, low pressure system will continue to sit over the
Southwest for the remainder of the day and begin to migrate
eastward throughout the day on Saturday. Temperatures look to
remain near average for this time of year on Saturday with
breezy, 15-25 mph, westerly winds expected in the afternoon. A
subtle moisture tap from the Gulf of Mexico will accompany the low
pressure, generating showers and thunderstorms from western Texas
to the Four Corners region on Saturday. With some moisture in
place and the core of the low anticipated to be directly over the
AZ/UT border by Saturday afternoon, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for locations mainly along and north of
I-40, with greatest chances (30-55%) from Flagstaff to the Kaibab
Plateau and along the Utah border.

As the low continues to shift eastward, afternoon winds become
west-northwest on Sunday with temperatures warming to ~5 degrees
above average due to the increasing heights from west to east. As
a shortwave ridge builds towards the west, residual moisture
leftover from the low pressure system looks to remain in place
over northern Arizona. Though not abundant, even with a little
moisture in place, convection should be able to develop isolated
rain showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher
terrain (i.e. San Francisco Peaks, Mogollon Rim, Kaibab Plateau,
and the Chuska Mountains) for Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures look to continue to warm through Tuesday with
westerly winds, 15-25 mph, and chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, extending to the White
Mountains. By Wednesday, another weak, upper-level low pressure
system looks to make its way eastward from the southern California
coast. Confidence continues to increase in this cut-off low
pressure phasing with a low pressure trough likely to brush across
the Rockies. At this time, GEFS and ECMWF Ens guidances both
suggest a slight increase in PWATs on Wednesday with the majority
of their members showing values between 0.3-0.4", which would be
slightly above average for this time of year according to SPC
sounding climatology. With that said, the chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms continue on Wednesday and into
Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 10/18Z through Saturday 11/18Z...VFR conditions
should mostly prevail through the TAF period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA
will be possible near/north of KGCN after 18Z. Brief periods of
smoke may reduce visibility at/near KFLG midday today, and again
overnight at KFLG, KSEZ, and KINW due to prescribed burns. Expect
winds to gradually shift to mostly SW this afternoon at 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 11/18Z through Monday 13/18Z...VFR conditions
should prevail outside of slight chances for -SHRA/-TSRA Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation will likely stay along and north of a
KSEZ-KRQE line. Periods of FU/HZ possible near prescribe burns,
mainly the KFLG and KSEZ terminals. Look for W winds 10-25 kts on
Saturday afternoon, becoming W-NW winds on Sunday. Light winds
return during the overnight timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mostly dry conditions are
expected over the weekend. There will be a chance (20-50%) for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim northward,
especially on Saturday. Very little precipitation is expected from
these, with gusty outflow winds more likely. Outside of showers,
expect west to northwest winds 10-25 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will warm near to above
normal. A low chance (10-30%) for mountain showers or thunderstorms
will continue each day through the week. Very little precipitation
is expected. Generally west winds of 10-20 mph are forecast through
the week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff