511
FXUS65 KFGZ 061905
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1205 PM MST Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected this week. There will be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly over the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains. Temperatures will peak from Tuesday through
Thursday, with very hot conditions at the lower elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Monday...A ridge of high pressure begins
to build over New Mexico, and becomes amplified by a cut off low
off the California coast. Moisture increases slightly, allowing
for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon and again on Monday, mainly over the higher terrain.
Drier air and slight capping will suppress much of the activity
however. The main threats with any storm will mainly be gusty
outflow winds.

Tuesday through Saturday...The ridge continues to strengthen and
eventually retrograde over Arizona. With this, moisture looks to
remain in place to some degree, but the resulting subsidence
inversion from the ridge will act to suppress any real chances for
storm activity. Nevertheless, daily chances remain each afternoon,
but remain slim and largely confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains.

Hot temperatures look to be the main story for the middle of next
week with the anomalously high heights (nearly 600 dam). Afternoon
highs in the upper 80s F to lower 90s F can be expected across the
higher terrain, with the lower deserts in the 100s F to near 115F in
the warmest locations. An Extreme Heat Warning  has been issued for
the Lower Elevations of the Grand Canyon for Tuesday through
Thursday, as well as the lower elevations of Yavapai and Gila
counties on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 06/18Z through Monday 07/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible before 03Z, mainly over the higher terrain.
Winds SW 5-10 kts before 02Z, then becoming VRB. Gusty, erratic
outflow winds possible in and around TS.

OUTLOOK...Monday 07/18Z through Wednesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible over the higher terrain each afternoon.
Daytime winds W/SW 10-15 kts on Monday, subsiding to 5-10 kts on
Tuesday. Gusty, erratic outflow winds possible in and around TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warming temperatures and mainly
dry conditions. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon, mainly over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Winds
west/southwest 5-15 mph each afternoon with minimum afternoon RH 10-
20%. Gusty erratic outflow winds possible near thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...Hot and mainly dry conditions continue,
outside of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the
White Mountains each afternoon. West winds 5-15 mph each day,
along with minimum afternoon RH 8-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM MST Thursday for
AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ018-
037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff