038
FXUS65 KFGZ 101720
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 AM MST Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot daytime highs will stick around through much of
the forecast period. Mostly dry weather expected today and Friday,
outside of isolated showers near the White Mountains.
Precipitation chances slowly increase over the weekend and into
next week, primarily across the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak short-wave is currently sliding through the
Great Basin Region, resulting in the high pressure that is over
Arizona to flatten and shift slightly westward today and tomorrow.
From this pattern shift, we`ll see daytime highs ever so slightly
decrease through the end of the week, and precipitation chances
become limited to the White Mountains area. Be mindful that there
is still an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for areas below 4000`
at the Grand Canyon until Sunday evening. Be sure to practice heat
safety!

Over the weekend...High pressure will once again
build across the Southwest, keeping daytime highs hot and
potentially allowing moisture to return across the High Country.
The NBM has 15-35% chances for showers/storms across the Mogollon
Rim/White Mountains for Saturday and 30-60% chances for the same
areas on Sunday. This uptick in moisture looks to hang around
through the beginning of next week, but confidence is still low at
this time. Model guidance suggests additional moisture funneling
in from the south, but we don`t look to be in a typical monsoon
pattern. For now, remember daytime highs will be hot and daily
chances for showers/storms will resume over the weekend and into
next week, primarily across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 10/18Z through Friday 11/18Z...VFR conditions
expected, with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line. Winds
are W 15-20 kts gusting to 30 kts, becoming light and VRB after
06Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 11/18Z through Sunday 13/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line on
Friday, becoming isolated-scattered along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line on
Saturday. Winds are generally W 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts each
day, light and VRB during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot and mostly dry conditions
expected to continue. Very slight chances for showers/storms near
the White Mountains today and Friday afternoon. Minimum RH values
generally 5-10% north of I-40, and 10-25% south of I-40 both
afternoons. Look for westerly winds 10-20 mph, gusting near 35 mph
today, resulting in near critical fire weather conditions across the
Little Colorado River Valley. Lighter winds 5-15 mph forecast for
Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Hot daytime highs will persist through the
weekend and into next week. Precipitation chances will slowly
increase across northern Arizona each day, with greatest chances
focused over the higher terrain. Minimum RH values will generally be
between 8-20% each day, and winds look to be out of the west at 5-15
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff