112
FXUS65 KFGZ 312112
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
212 PM MST Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and
breezy afternoon winds will continue to be the main weather
story.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A zonal flow continues to bring warm temperatures
and dry conditions to northern Arizona. There are a few areas with
high-level clouds currently, mostly along the higher terrain. The
chances for showers in these areas is not zero, but the likely
scenario for falling precipitation will be in the form of virga -
rain that evaporates before reaching the ground. Afternoon highs
today were expected to reach 2-10 degrees above normal, with
slightly cooler conditions moving in over the weekend.

A week disturbance will sweep across the state Saturday and Sunday,
elevating afternoon winds and dropping afternoon highs by a few
degrees. Look for southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 20-30 mph on
Saturday. Winds look to slightly decrease and shift more westerly
for Sunday. There does not appear to be any moisture that will
reach our CWA out of this disturbance, so minimum RH values will
continue to be in the single digits - upper teens.

Next week we`ll begin to see high pressure set up over the region,
quickly warming temperatures up across the state. Nearly right on
time to the start of the Meteorological Summer, afternoon
temperatures will be in the 80s for many areas above 6000` and
90s/100s for lower elevation areas. As we start to quickly reach
these hotter conditions, be sure to limit your time outdoors, seek
shade often, and always stay hydrated! Also during this warming
period, model guidance is suggesting the formation of a low off
the Baja of California Coast. Depending on how well this pattern
holds, there will be the potential for moisture to be funneled
into our region by the end of next week...more on that later.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 31/18Z through Saturday 01/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period. High based cumulus development
expected this afternoon with a few virga showers possible over
higher terrain. SW winds at 10-20 kts through 03Z, then becoming
light.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 01/18Z through Monday 03/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. SW winds during the afternoons, 10-20 kts gusting
20-30 kts. Light and variable wind in the overnight and early
morning periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...High based cloud build ups
may produce a stray sprinkle or virga shower this afternoon with
gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions will
continue. Daytime humidity will drop to 5-15%. Southwest winds each
day around 10-20 mph. A few gusts to 30 mph on Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry weather continues. Generally
southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon. Minimum humidity
ranging from 5-15% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff