Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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665 FXUS65 KFGZ 260351 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 851 PM MST Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern Arizona today. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week. && .UPDATE...As the shortwave trough to our north passes east into Colorado this evening, a prolonged period of tranquil weather awaits us. High pressure will build over the Southwest in the coming days, bringing mainly light winds and the warmest temperatures of the season so far. For those that love the time of year when the air is desiccatingly dry and the sun is searingly hot, the upcoming week`s forecast will bring you ineffable joy. Minor updates were made to tonight`s sky cover and wind grids. The rest of the forecast remains on track. Today`s Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire on time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /428 PM MST/...Arizona remains on the dry side of a shortwave trough passing from Utah into Colorado today. The main shortwave stays far enough north to keep any associated moisture north of Arizona, but sufficient pressure gradients have resulted in the development of gusty southwest winds. Wind gusts this afternoon are ranging from 30 to 50 mph, with the strongest occurring just downwind of the Mogollon Rim. Humidity will be low enough in the lower elevations of northeastern Arizona today to combine with the wind to generate critical fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect there until 6 PM. The trough axis moves east of Arizona this evening allowing pressure gradients to slacken and winds to decrease tonight. High pressure will gradually build over the Southwest over the coming days and bring a quieter weather period for the rest of the holiday weekend through next week. Much less wind is expected and temperatures will climb above normal by Monday and remain so through the week. At this time, the lack of wind should limit any critical fire weather concerns, however, a warming an drying trend is expected with afternoon humidity dropping into the single digits to low teens each day from Monday onward. && .AVIATION...Sunday 26/00Z through Monday 27/00Z...VFR. SW-W winds 15-25 kts gusting to 25-35 kts through 03Z, then becoming 10 kts or less overnight. SW winds around 10-20 kts after 18Z Sunday. OUTLOOK...Monday 27/00Z through Wednesday 29/00Z...VFR. SW-W winds 5-15 kts Monday and Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warming temperatures and lighter winds through Monday with minimum RH values 5-15% each afternoon. Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures warm further on Tuesday then remain warm through Thursday. Min RHs will be 5-15% each day with overnight recoveries only around 20-40% by mid week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji/MCT AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff