Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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714 FXUS65 KFGZ 252114 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 214 PM MST Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern Arizona today. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Arizona remains on the dry side of a shortwave trough passing from Utah into Colorado today. The main shortwave stays far enough north to keep any associated moisture north of Arizona, but sufficient pressure gradients have resulted in the development of gusty southwest winds. Wind gusts this afternoon are ranging from 30 to 50 mph, with the strongest occurring just downwind of the Mogollon Rim. Humidity will be low enough in the lower elevations of northeastern Arizona today to combine with the wind to generate critical fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect there until 6 PM. The trough axis moves east of Arizona this evening allowing pressure gradients to slacken and winds to decrease tonight. High pressure will gradually build over the Southwest over the coming days and bring a quieter weather period for the rest of the holiday weekend through next week. Much less wind is expected and temperatures will climb above normal by Monday and remain so through the week. At this time, the lack of wind should limit any critical fire weather concerns, however, a warming an drying trend is expected with afternoon humidity dropping into the single digits to low teens each day from Monday onward. && .AVIATION...Saturday 25/18Z through Sunday 26/18Z...VFR conditions persist. SW winds increasing through the morning. Afternoon gusts ranging from 30-40 kts. Winds gradually slack this evening and tonight. Light winds Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/18Z through Tuesday 28/18Z...VFR conditions continue to persist. SW-W winds 5-15 kts on Sunday and Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Critical fire weather conditions this evening across the Little Colorado River Valley and Chinle Valley. Across the rest of northern Arizona, elevated fire weather conditions will continue with afternoon winds gusts 25-40 mph and min RHs in the 20s to upper teens. Overnight recoveries tonight will see most getting above 50 percent. Notably lower RHs for Sunday and Monday but much lighter winds. Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will rise Tuesday then remain warm through Thursday. Min RHs will fall into the low teens and single digits. Overnight recoveries will also dry, only in the 20s and 30s by mid week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ110-112>114. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff