Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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169 FXUS65 KFGZ 251730 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1030 AM MST Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern Arizona today. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week. && .UPDATE...A mostly clear morning is underway across northern Arizona while southwest winds have been quick to develop. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are already being observed in the high country. A dry, breezy, and slightly cooler day is in store with a trough passage to our north today. The forecast trends are well on track with no morning updates needed. && .PREV DISCUSSION /511 AM MST/...A s/wv trough will move through the eastern Great Basin today, passing to our north. This leaves us on the dry and windy side of the trough, with a few degrees of cooling as we are brushed by the colder air. Wind speeds will peak today, with the strongest winds east of Flagstaff and north of the Mogollon Rim. Most areas will stay just below Wind Advisory criteria, a few areas may sneak above, but not enough for wind headlines. However, winds will be high enough, when combined with a very dry airmass, to warrant a Red Flag warning toady, predominately for the Little Colorado River Valley and Chinle Valley. After today, heights begin to rise over northern Arizona, lasting through next week. This will allow for much less wind, warmer temperatures and continued dry weather. && .AVIATION...Saturday 25/18Z through Sunday 26/18Z...VFR conditions persist. SW winds increasing through the morning. Afternoon gusts ranging from 30-40 kts. Winds gradually slack this evening and tonight. Light winds Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/18Z through Tuesday 28/18Z...VFR conditions continue to persist. SW-W winds 5-15 kts on Sunday and Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Critical fire weather conditions today across the Little Colorado River Valley and Chinle Valley. Elsewhere across northern Arizona will experience elevated fire weather conditions with afternoon winds gusts 25-40 mph and min RHs falling into the 20s to upper teens. Overnight recoveries tonight will see most getting above 50 percent. Notably lower RHs for Sunday but much lighter winds. Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will be warming Monday through Wednesday with min RHs falling into the low teens and single digits. Overnight recoveries will become worse, only jumping into the 20s and 30s by mid week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ110-112>114. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT/Peterson AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff