422
FXUS65 KFGZ 141614
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
914 AM MST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across Arizona today will
bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across
northeastern Arizona. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return
this weekend, with a slight cooling trend early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Northern Navajo and Apache Counties are currently
seeing isolated showers/thunderstorms. Northeastern Arizona is
expected to be the hot-spot for convective activity today, but
should gradually fade through the afternoon. Outside of
showers/storms, look for mostly dry conditions, warm temperatures,
and winds generally 10 mph or less.

Afternoon highs will quickly warm tomorrow, followed by a cooling
trend Sunday through the beginning of next week. The low-pressure
system that is expected to drop our daytime highs will also bring
gusty winds. Strong winds mixed with relative humidities in the
single digits- teens will likely create near critical to critical
fire weather concerns Sunday and Monday.

The previous forecast package/discussion remains on track, so no
updates were made. Read below for more details...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /455 AM MST/...An area of low pressure is centered over the lower
Colorado River Valley early this morning. Out ahead of the low,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been moving
through Navajo and Apache counties overnight. Radar estimates and
a couple of observations show only light rain mainly less than
0.10" has fallen in these areas. Closer to the core of the low, a
few more robust convective cells have developed over Yavapai
county. The low will gradually track northeastward across the
state today, continuing to bring isolated to scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms. Given the ongoing activity and support of
some CAPE in the hi-resolution models, thunder will be possible
with any convective development this morning and afternoon. The
best coverage of convective activity is expected to be across
northeastern Arizona through the day. Light rainfall is expected
with only a lucky few actually seeing measurable amounts.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday for much of the
area, except eastern Arizona where appreciable cloud cover and
shower activity will keep them about 5 degrees cooler.

The low heads east by this evening which will quickly diminish any
shower chances and lead to clearing skies. A drier and breezy
weather pattern takes hold over the weekend and into next week as
persisting troughing develops over the northwestern U.S. After a
quick warm up on Saturday, anomalously low heights for this time
of year will keep temperatures near to below average through the
middle of next week. The bad news is that the trough will lead to
increasing wind speeds from Saturday into early next week, which
could lead to some areas of critical fire weather by Sunday/Monday.

By the middle of next week, subtropical high pressure begins to
build back into the region with rising heights leading to warming
temperatures. In addition, models are indicating some moisture
from New Mexico might spread westward into Arizona bringing
another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the White
Mountains by Thursday, spreading westward across much of the area
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 14/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...VFR expected
during TAF period. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/TS will be possible
along and north of a KGCN-KFLG-KINW-KJTC line through 00Z. Rain
chances gradually shift eastward throughout the day. Light, variable
winds this morning will become W-NW at 5-15 kts after 18Z. Gusty,
erratic winds will be possible near storms and downbursts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/12Z through Monday 17/12Z...VFR conditions
under mostly sunny skies will persist. Breezy SW winds, strengthening
through the weekend into the start of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, primarily over northeastern Coconino County and
northern Navajo and Apache counties should dissipate through the
afternoon. Otherwise, dry and warm, especially on Saturday. Daytime
winds variable 5 to 15 mph today, southwesterly 10 to 20 mph, with
gusts to 25 mph, on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly cooler, but still very dry with
minimum RH values in the single digits to mid-teens each afternoon.
Breezy SW winds over the weekend strengthen, becoming windy by
Monday, causing near-critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/MCT
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff