Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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725 FXUS65 KFGZ 130403 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 903 PM MST Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures, even for June, are in the forecast the next couple of days. Some relief from the heat arrives Thursday evening into Friday along with a chance for light rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts will be minimal with dry lightning possible. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return by the weekend, with a slight cooling trend early next week. && .UPDATE...A warm night across the region with many places still well into the 70s to 80s. Things will continue to cool off this evening with little to no clouds around most of the night. Moisture in the form of clouds can be seen making its way northward through southern Arizona this evening, and should make its way into our region by as early as tomorrow morning. Aside from that, expect it to remain quiet through the rest of the night as the winds have already started to drop off and should become light and variable through much of the region. Updated grids to better reflect the isolated/dry thunder potential later tomorrow afternoon and evening. Otherwise, everything looks to be in good shape! && .PREV DISCUSSION /354 PM MST/...Hot temperatures continue today with strong high pressure in place (500mb height 593-595 dam). Highs today are going to top out at 10-15 degrees above mid-June averages. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect below 4000 feet in Coconino and Yavapai counties. A closed low centered off the coast of San Diego is moving slowly eastward. Pressure gradients between these 2 systems are tightening, and breezy southwest winds are the result. Gusts in the 20-30 mph range are being observed at 1 PM. Thursday and Friday - the closed low will move into southern California by Thursday afternoon and western Arizona by sunrise Friday. The low will open up and move into Colorado by Friday afternoon. We will see some increasing mid and high level cloudiness as early as sunrise Thursday, continuing to increase through the day. There will be a chance of virga/sprinkles from around Flagstaff westward through the afternoon, but forecast CAPE values are very low so the risk of thunderstorms should be minimal until the low pressure center moves closer to the area. The extra clouds could knock temperatures down a bit and allow for an early end to the Excessive Heat Warning, but will make that call tomorrow. The best lift and slightly deeper moisture move up across Yavapai/Coconino counties Thursday night with precip chances 30-40%. Only very light amounts of less than 0.10" are anticipated. Lightning chances go up slightly due to cooling aloft, but without daytime heating the instability and lightning risk remain low overnight. On Friday - the higher rain chances (30-60%) shift into northeast Arizona. With daytime heating, the chance of lightning goes up which poses a threat of new wildfire starts, again mainly in northeast Arizona. Rain chances end Friday evening near the four corners. Saturday through Tuesday - temperatures rebound briefly on Saturday as the low departs eastward. Highs will be 7-12 degrees above normal. From Sunday onward, models are in agreement that a large trough will set up over the northwest US, pushing the ridge well south of our area. This will bring a gradual cooling trend to the region, with highs possibly even a few degrees cooler than normal by early next week. Unfortunately, we will be on the windy southern end of the trough with gusts in the 30-40 mph range in the forecast Sunday and Monday - possibly leading to a period of critical fire weather so stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Thursday 13/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...Mainly VFR with increasing cloud cover through Thursday. Light and variable winds through 16Z-17Z, then S-SW winds increase to 15-25 kts. ISO SHRA/TS after 18Z, increasing after 00Z mainly along and east of KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. OUTLOOK...Friday 14/06Z through Sunday 16/06Z...Mainly VFR expected. ISO-SCT SHRA with ISO TS, mainly east of a KPGA-KINW- KSOW line through 00Z/Sat. Brief MVFR or lower possible in heavy showers. W-SW winds 10-20 kts Friday, then SW 15-25 kts Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot temperatures will continue Thursday before slightly cooling off on Friday. Chances for rain/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon across Yavapai & Coconino Counties, becoming more focused across E Arizona on Friday. Dry lightning and gusty/erratic winds possible near storms. Southwest winds 15-25 mph Thursday becoming more westerly 10-20 mph Friday. Saturday through Monday...Above normal temperature will continue through Sunday, with cooler conditions returning Monday. Mainly dry conditions with gusty, southwest winds and afternoon RH values 5-15% daily. Near critical fire weather conditions likely over the weekend and continuing into next week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/JJ AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff