417
FXUS65 KFGZ 151112
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
412 AM MST Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect another hot, dry mid-June day today before
cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. Dry conditions
will combine with breezy southwest winds to create near critical
fire weather conditions both Sunday and Monday. Hot temperatures
and lighter winds return towards the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak zonal flow and elevated geopotential pressure
heights over the region will allow for sunny skies and daytime
temperatures to climb a few to five degrees above average.
Southwest winds will be modest with typical afternoon breezes
expected. However, this warming trend will be short lived. A broad
upper-level trough will dictate the weather across much of the
Southwest U.S. the next several days. The associated low pressure
center is currently located just west of the southern British
Columbia. This low will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest
U.S. before progressing eastward over the next several days. This
will decrease pressure heights over Arizona while also tightening
pressure gradients. Expect temperatures to be near to just below
seasonal conditions Sunday through Tuesday. More importantly,
winds will steadily increase from late Saturday through Monday.
Peak gusts are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 mph range on Sunday,
increasing to 25 to 35 mph by Monday with localized areas seeing
gusts closer to 40 mph. With fuels continuing to dry out, near
critical fire weather conditions are expected due to the low
humidity and increasing winds. Be firewise, and follow all burn
bans and/or restrictions.

Wednesday through Saturday...Once the low pressure area travels
far enough eastward, gradients will relax and pressure will slowly
begin to increase over the region. Expect a weak warming trend
and more diurnal fluctuations in the winds with afternoon breezes
generally between 15 and 20 mph. In addition, watch for moisture
to sneak into eastern Arizona from New Mexico towards the end of
next week, creating a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
develop. This will likely be relegated to Apache County with the
best chances for rain in the White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 15/12Z through Sunday 16/12Z...VFR expected through
the period under mostly clear skies. Light winds becoming SW at 10-15
kts gusting around 20 kts through 03-06Z before decreasing. Some
downslope wind gusts near 25 kts continuing northeast of high
terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/12Z through Tuesday 18/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Winds S-SW at 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts each day
with light winds at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Hot and dry today with
temperatures dropping around 5 degrees on Sunday. Southwest winds
today 10-20 mph, increasing on Sunday to 15-25 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. Areas of near-critical fire weather conditions across
northwestern Arizona on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and windy on Monday with southwest
winds 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph. A decrease in temperatures Monday
results in a slight increase in RH, especially over the high
terrain. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely along and
north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures remain near to below average
through Wednesday with breezy southwest winds each day 10-20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff