629
FXUS65 KFGZ 131116
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
416 AM MST Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue into early next
week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated or scattered
activity through Monday. A gradual uptick in moisture is forecast
during the course of next week, with a potential for very wet
conditions by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure continues to remain in place
off the California coast. Things continues to stream drier air
into the region with drier air aloft. Some mid-level moisture does
look to try to undercut the high this afternoon, potentially
allowing for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop.
However, given the dry sub-cloud layer and subsidence inversion,
it will be difficult for much of any precipitation to materialize.
The latest hi-res guidance seems to mostly focus the greatest
chances for precipitation this afternoon across the White Mountains
and eastern Mogollon Rim, with a secondary cluster near the Coconino
Plateau. Gusty winds will be the main threats with any storm.

Monday and Tuesday... he high looks to gradually shift eastward
through the week, which should allow for monsoonal moisture to move
northward into Arizona through the week. As a result, daily chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to increase each day.
The main threats with any of these storms initially will be gusty
winds given the still very dry sub-cloud layer. Coverage will mainly
be focused over the higher terrain, with some additional development
possible off the terrain as convective becomes forced by outflow
boundaries.

Additionally, with the high still in place, temperatures look to
remain on the warm side each day. As a result, an Extreme Heat
Warning remains for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.

Wednesday through Saturday...By the middle of next week, a more
traditional synoptic pattern with weak troughing over the Gulf of
California and ridging to the east. This should allow for deeper
monsoonal moisture to take hold over the area, with more areawide
chances setting in for the second-half of next week. Temperatures
also look to decrease some, with cooler, more typical highs
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 13/12Z through Monday 14/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA from 19Z to 03Z, mainly south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN
line. Winds SW-NW 5-15 kts 18-02Z, otherwise VRB around 5 kts.
Gusty, erratic outflow winds possible in and around TS.

OUTLOOK...Monday 14/12Z through Wednesday 16/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon, most numerous over the higher
terrain. Winds SW-NW 5-15 kts on Monday, becoming W/SW 10-15 kts on
Tuesday. Gusty, erratic outflow winds possible in and around TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Slight chance of mainly dry
thunderstorms and possibly a brief shower over the higher terrain
each afternoon. Winds west/northwest 5-15 mph, with gusts to around
20 mph each afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around
thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Cooling temperatures. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms increase each day, most numerous over the higher
terrain. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, with gusts up to 20
mph in the afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around
thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff