906
FXUS64 KFWD 251935
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
235 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/
/Through Thursday/

This morning`s showers and thunderstorms have diminished, and the
cold front responsible for this activity has just crossed our
southern border. Post-frontal stratus developed behind the front
across much of the region but will scatter out over the next few
hours, leaving behind sunny skies for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. Nice fall weather is expected this
afternoon with high temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s and
a prevailing northeast wind around 10-15 mph.

Clear skies, light winds, and dry post-frontal air will result in
a cooler night across the region with overnight lows falling into
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Thursday will be another pleasant day
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend. Fairly quiet and
generally rain-free conditions can be expected as we end the
month. Afternoon highs will range in the mid to upper 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s. A few lucky locations may even see a
couple of mornings with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

A gradual warming trend will bring us through the weekend into
the start of next week. This is due to the influence of an upper
level low currently positioned across portions of the eastern
CONUS. Hurricane Helene will wrap around this upper level low
through the weekend, which will serve to increase large scale
subsidence over our region. Given the latest data from both
deterministic and ensemble guidance, we have opted to remove PoPs
from our northeastern counties due to increasing confidence that
the region will be within the dry slot of the upper level low
placed well off to our east. The aforementioned warming trend will
be slightly offset by continued northerly flow at the surface,
which will likely result in breezy conditions for portions of
North and Central Texas on Friday and Saturday. Wind gusts upwards
of 20 to 30 mph will be possible over this portion of the weekend.

Confidence decreases as we move into the middle of next week, but
there are some hints that another reinforcing cold front will
push through the region. Continue to check back for updates!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Pesky MVFR ceilings continue across much of the region but should
scatter out in the Metroplex by ~18Z (~19Z for KACT). VFR is
expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Northeast winds near
10 to 15 knots will prevail this afternoon, but speeds will
diminish to around 5 knots by late evening. North winds around 10
knots are expected on Thursday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  83  63  83  65 /   0   0   5   0   0
Waco                60  85  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               58  83  59  80  62 /   0   0   5  10   5
Denton              58  85  58  84  61 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            59  85  59  83  62 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              63  85  63  84  65 /   0   0   5   0   0
Terrell             60  84  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  85  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              60  87  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       58  85  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$