004
FXUS64 KFWD 232321
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Monday/

Heat will remain the dominant weather word Monday, with very few
changes expected relative to today. The sprawling upper level
ridge of high pressure draped over Texas and New Mexico will
linger over the region through Monday, though it does appear the
center of this feature may retrograde very slightly, placing
North Texas on its northwest flank. All things being equal, this
should result in no noticeable increases in daytime temperatures
Monday, though highs in the upper 90s to near 100 will still be
the rule areawide. The Heat Advisory issued for roughly the
eastern half of the forecast area for Monday through Tuesday
remains in effect.

A brief cessation of wind this afternoon temporarily reduced
near surface mixing and facilitated a short-lived temperature
rise to 100 degrees at DFW. This was the first 100 degree day at
DFW so far this year, and it occurred about a week before the
climatological average first occurrence. More out of persistence
than anything else, went ahead and maintained 100 at DFW in this
evening`s updated grids, but with slightly lower forecast
thicknesses, wouldn`t be surprised if this key reporting site tops
out just a degree or two shy of the century mark tomorrow. Rest
assured, there will be plenty of future opportunities for us to
see 100+ readings this summer. No other meaningful changes made to
the near term forecast.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/
/Monday Night through Sunday/

A stout mid level ridge will remain in place across the Southern
Plains Monday night through much of the week resulting in
increasing heat and humidity. The center of the ridge axis will
temporarily shift across West Texas on Tuesday in response to
deepening troughing across the eastern CONUS. While this won`t
have much impact on our temperatures, it may briefly allow
increasing northerly flow aloft to send a remnant Plains storm
complex southward toward the Red River late Tuesday and again
Wednesday. None of the major model guidance shows any noteworthy
precipitation making it into North Texas, but perhaps some
increased cloud cover can provide some temporary relief throughout
the day. Otherwise, our ridge will expand back to the east late
Wednesday through the remainder of the week and into next weekend.
This will support continued hot temperatures with highs near 100
each afternoon. Light synoptic scale flow will likely result in
less afternoon mixing Wednesday through Friday and should help
keep dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will result in heat indices
above 105 each afternoon and a likely continuation of heat
headlines through the week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR conditions will persist across all of North and Central Texas
through 06z Tuesday, as a large ridge of high pressure continues
to dominate the region. A weak surface trough in eastern New
Mexico, coupled with a broad high pressure region across the Lower
Mississippi Valley will facilitate a modest pressure gradient
across North Texas tonight and Monday. Surface winds will remain
generally southerly in direction, at speeds averaging 7 to 10
knots.

Bradshaw

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  99  80  99  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                76  96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  97  78  97  78 /   5   5   0   5  10
Denton              76  99  78 100  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
McKinney            77  99  78  99  79 /   5   5   0   0   5
Dallas              79  99  80 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             76  97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           77  98  78  97  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              74  96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  98  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$